The Venezuelan opposition faces a tense chapter as its primary elections, slated for October 22, enter a period of turbulence. The National Electoral Council (CNE) floated a postponement to November 19, proposing an automatic voting system to ensure a transparent process. The suggested change carries a hidden caveat, prioritizing what the CNE calls a special competition across every election in the country. This move follows four months of inactivity at the organization, linked to the resignation of its rectors.
The National Primary Commission (CNP) decided to keep the original date, the agreed schedule, and the voting system agreed upon by all participating blocs. Ballot papers will proceed despite pressure from the government bloc known as Madurismo. The government’s deputy leader and vice president of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) described the opposition’s method for choosing the sole candidate to face Nicolás Maduro in 2024. The mechanism, he claimed, would be supervised by the United States, suggesting that primaries might not occur at all. He asserted that money and influence from the United States would dictate the process, and that the USA would decide the next steps if needed.
The response from the opposition was swift. Reports emerged from several states of individuals affiliated with the regime allegedly trying to usurp regional primary councils and displace their members from duties. These claims were voiced by Causa R, the faction that backed Andrés Velázquez in internal elections.
With roughly 3,000 voting centers spread across 331 of Venezuela’s 335 municipalities, most located in public spaces, the CNP urged the CNE to open about 400 schools to expand access. Cabello rejected this proposal, drawing sharp lines in the debate.
Intersection
Vicente Díaz, a former CNE rector, urged the opposition to take the CNE’s proposal seriously, warning that self-managed elections carry notable drawbacks. Luís Salamanca, another former CNE rector, described the CNP’s stance as a veiled threat, arguing that the state body is not constitutionally or legally empowered to oversee primaries in this context. He reiterated that the CNE holds exclusive authority to organize elections for public offices. Benigno Alarcón, director of the Center for the Study of Politicians and Government at the Andrés Bello Catholic University, suggested that the tender of support might be aimed at undermining the primaries.
The alarm bells rang as María Corina Machado emerged as a probable favorite to win the primaries. Machado has long been among the opposition’s most uncompromising voices and has rejected any government agreement to call internal opposition elections. She asserted that the process had already advanced, with training completed and materials prepared, leaving little room for reversal.
Disqualification
A major political factor concerns the status of the leading candidates. A prominent figure stands accused of disqualification by the Comptroller’s Office, a move that could affect the primaries far more than a mere postponement. The Vente Venezuela movement is barred from public office, along with rival Henrique Capriles. Supporters have labeled the measure an act of desperation by the Miraflores Palace. While the CNP has not sanctioned them, the issue remains unresolved.
This regulatory hurdle comes amid stalled negotiations between the opposition and the government. Talks in Mexico, hosted with international mediation, have not yet yielded a clear path forward for the 2024 elections. Washington and other international partners have indicated a willingness to ease economic sanctions gradually in exchange for concrete commitments to electoral transparency and openness.
In this climate, Machado’s position strengthens. Analysts suggest she is the favorite to prevail in the primaries, with or without CNE involvement. Some observers argue that a Machado victory on October 22 is more likely than a November 19 win. Yet the broader question remains: is Maduro seeking to polarize the presidential race or to remove Machado from the electoral pool because of perceived threats to his hold on power?