Producing plants, renewable energy, and electric batteries are pivotal in advancing a sustainable energy system, yet they rely on non-renewable resources for their operation. This is especially true for minerals essential to renewable technologies. If current global economic growth continues, these minerals may not be available in the required quantities to complete the ecological transition. The path forward involves gradually slowing industrial expansion and increasing resource circularity to keep materials circulating longer and more efficiently.
This conclusion comes from the report Mineral requirements of the energy transition, produced by Ecologistas en Acción. The study applies a global integrated assessment model to forecast the demand for key minerals used in solar photovoltaic systems, wind energy, and electric storage batteries under three scenarios with a 2050 horizon. The analysis highlights how mineral needs could unfold in different futures that center around solar density, wind power, and energy storage.
Although some international organizations acknowledge material scarcity, they generally advocate circular economy reforms intended to close material loops and boost recycling through eco-design and responsible practices. Yet the Ecologistas en Acción report suggests that those measures alone may not suffice to bridge the looming gap.
Doubts about the viability of the green transition
Under a green growth scenario, the demand for minerals to build new infrastructure for renewable energy and storage rises at an extraordinary pace. This raises questions about how feasible the current path to renewable energy adoption is, given the expected pressure on mineral supplies as outlined by major international organizations and national bodies.
In contrast, a decreasing-scenario, as modeled in the report, would drive down greenhouse gas emissions and sharply reduce material demand. However, some mineral uses may lack immediate economic viability or have alternative applications that still require attention.
Exceeding the region’s known reserves remains a concern for materials such as cobalt, copper, nickel, and silver, along with indium, molybdenum, selenium, and tellurium. The study notes that several essential minerals could face tight supply pressures if extraction continues at current or higher rates.
The results offer two clear readings: first, the transition to renewable energy tends to intensify pressure on mineral extraction, bringing significant mining-related challenges for local communities and environmental health due to waste and low ore concentrations. Mining already stands as one of Europe’s waste-intensive sectors, a reality that calls for urgent attention to waste management and site rehabilitation.
Second, current reserves may be insufficient to meet projected demand for some minerals, potentially pushing resource extraction to new frontiers, as seen in recent EU and Spain activities. In a green growth scenario, these challenges could become more acute and widespread.
The solution: downsizing and a more circular economy
The Ecologistas en Acción study points to policy measures that can curb the demand for primary materials and minimize environmental damage when mitigation is unavoidable. The aim is to move toward a planned economy where resource use aligns with planetary boundaries and social behavior shifts toward lower material and energy intensity.
There is a push for demographically informed governance and cultural changes that encourage practices requiring less material and energy density. This includes promoting forms of urban planning and consumer behavior that reduce reliance on high material throughput.
Technological development should focus on abundant materials, eco-design, and standardized products to facilitate repair, reuse, and recycling. Improving production efficiency also helps cut waste and the environmental footprint of component manufacture.
In materials management, raising end-of-life recycling rates and introducing minimum recycled content in new devices are key steps. Support for urban mining, the creation of public entities to promote mineral recovery and recycling, and policies that encourage the use of secondary metals all play a role. Fiscal measures, trade rules, and international norms can help, alongside efforts to curb primary extraction where feasible.
Ultimately, the report argues that a sustainable energy transition hinges on a combination of economic restraint and a robust circular economy. This must be complemented by a socially planned framework that ensures democratic oversight of resource use and fair wealth distribution across society.
Full study: citation: Ecologistas en Acción, Mineral requirements of the energy transition. The full research body is available through institutional channels as recorded in the study’s attribution and related public disclosures.
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