About 67 percent of demand minerals needed for the energy transition from now until 2050 could be met with recycled metals. This conclusion comes from a study conducted by the CIRCE Joint Research Institute of the University of Zaragoza, based on austerity measures and the circular economy, and documented in a report prepared for Friends of the Earth.
The study outlines measures such as extending technology lifespans, improving metal recycling, limiting the size of electric vehicle batteries and reusing them, and reducing the private car fleet by expanding bus networks. The findings come from the report Minerals for Energy and the Digital Transition in Spain: demand, recycling and savings measures, which asserts that a large share of mineral demand could be satisfied through recycled metals.
Circular economy and competence
Presented last December, the document explores how mineral demand will rise with Spain’s energy and digital transition plans through 2050 and assesses recycling potential and savings strategies. It concludes that combining circular economy practices with sufficiency measures could reduce demand for the analyzed metals by about 34 percent, and cut demand for lithium by around half. It also emphasizes that reducing overall demand while boosting recycling can nearly halve mineral extraction across technologies. Renewable energy tech is not the primary driver of mineral demand growth, but mobility remains a key factor due to electric vehicles.
The report highlights that electric mobility drives a large share of metal demand and accounts for the majority of certain critical metals. For example, electric vehicles are linked to a significant portion of aluminum and copper demand and a substantial share of manganese, cobalt, nickel and lithium consumption. Wind technologies contribute a smaller portion of mineral demand, mainly tied to energy production.
The analysis points out that mobility-related measures have the greatest potential to curb mineral demand. By shrinking the private vehicle fleet to about a third of its current size by 2050 and increasing the number of electric buses, overall mineral demand could fall by 10 to 25 percent, depending on the metal. Limiting battery size would further reduce demand by roughly 3 to 14 percent.
Adriana Espinoza, who heads Natural Resources and Waste at Friends of Earth, cautions that corporate commitments to mining—an activity with clear environmental and human rights impacts—should be paired with genuine recycling incentives and austerity measures to substantially lower demand.
“There will not be enough minerals for everyone”
The document underscores that the EU’s approach, which seeks to extract about 10 percent of total strategic mineral consumption from European lands by 2030, has intensified efforts to diversify supplies from other regions and accelerate mining projects. However, this strategy may not be fully reflected in southern countries.
Espinoza adds that meeting the energy transition goals requires more than replacing fossil fuels with renewables; it also demands reevaluating how production and consumption are organized to ensure a fair and sustainable path.
Reference work: Tierra.org report on minerals for the transition. (Cited from Tierra.org document, December 2023.)
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The environmental department notes the importance of policy shifts that support material reuse, recycling, and reduced consumption as part of a broader strategy for sustainable mining and resource management.