A clean energy system that reduces pollution will raise the demand for critical minerals needed to produce new technologies such as photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, and electric car batteries. By 2040, depending on how emission reductions progress, global demand could rise four to six times current levels. Because of this, careful planning is essential to ensure supply and to support a successful energy transition.
This conclusion comes from the report Energy transition and critical minerals, authored by Professor Mariano Marzo and published by the Naturgy Foundation. The document notes that demand shows no sign of slowing and is expected to keep growing: Critical minerals accounted for 11% of the total value of international trade in energy raw materials in 2019, rising to an estimated 47% by 2050, while fossil fuels would move in the opposite direction, from 89% to about 18% of the mix [citation attributed to the Naturgy Foundation report].
Marzo stresses the challenge of securing supply chains for these materials. Without safe and resilient supply chains for the minerals and the products derived from them, the pace and cost of the energy transition could face headwinds [citation attributed to the Naturgy Foundation report].
Since 2010, as renewable energy sources have become widespread globally, the average mineral intensity per unit of electricity production has increased by about half, highlighting the rising material needs tied to decarbonization [citation attributed to the Naturgy Foundation report].
For example, an electric car demands roughly six times the mineral inputs of a conventional internal combustion vehicle, while a wind farm requires about nine times more minerals than a natural gas combined cycle plant [citation attributed to the Naturgy Foundation report].
Key elements for renewable energy
Minerals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and graphite are crucial for battery performance, longevity, and energy density. Rare earth elements support wind turbine function and electric motor efficiency, while electrical grids rely heavily on copper and aluminum. These examples illustrate the new dependencies introduced by decarbonization and the need to manage environmental, economic, social, and geopolitical impacts across the entire value chain—from extraction to processing to final recycling [citation attributed to the Naturgy Foundation report].
In this context, the energy transition creates new pressures on resource security. The study flags that existing energy security mechanisms are built to respond quickly to hydrocarbon disruptions or price spikes, but the growing role of minerals in a low-carbon system introduces new vulnerabilities. Price volatility and supply risk are unlikely to disappear as renewables expand their share in electricity generation [citation attributed to the Naturgy Foundation report].
These raw materials influence the cost structure of many technologies. For instance, a doubling of lithium or nickel prices could raise battery costs by about 6%, and simultaneous increases would offset gains from higher production capacity [citation attributed to the Naturgy Foundation report].
Gradual and inadequate action
The reality today is that global plans for mineral supply and investment are only incremental. They are not enough to mitigate climate change, and they do not truly accelerate the energy transition. The report suggests that these gaps leave markets exposed to tensions and price swings [citation attributed to the Naturgy Foundation report].
Notable weaknesses include geographic concentration of production and processing, long development timelines for new mining projects, and a general decline in resource quality. Environmental and social scrutiny of mining activities is intensifying, and climate-related risks also pose growing threats to the sector [citation attributed to the Naturgy Foundation report].
In the global race to lead the energy transition, governments are competing to control supply chains for low-carbon technologies. It is noted that China already plays a dominant role in this space, and there is a real possibility the country could shape the geopolitics of critical minerals and, by extension, low-carbon energy technologies. Such dynamics could influence the future order of global energy governance if current climate pressures persist [citation attributed to the Naturgy Foundation report].
March proposals underline the need to strengthen supply security for critical minerals, ensure adequate investment in new sources, promote innovation across the value chain, scale up recycling, improve transparency, and raise environmental, social, and governance standards. They also advocate for stronger international cooperation among producers and buyers to support a resilient, low-carbon energy system [citation attributed to the Naturgy Foundation report].
In this discussion, the emphasis is on building a secure, diversified supply framework that can withstand price shocks and geopolitical risks while enabling meaningful decarbonization. The report frames these issues as central to achieving climate goals without compromising energy reliability or affordability.
Overall, the energy transition depends on a careful balance of expanding mineral supplies, advancing technology, and maintaining robust governance. As the search for resilient supply chains continues, policy makers and industry players in North America and beyond are urged to pursue coordinated strategies that support sustainable mining, responsible processing, innovative recycling, and transparent market practices [citation attributed to the Naturgy Foundation report].
Notes: This synthesis draws from the Energy transition and critical minerals report. The study emphasizes the strategic importance of securing mineral supplies for decarbonization and the need for coordinated action across the value chain. [citation attributed to the Naturgy Foundation report]