Researchers from Princeton University have explored a troubling possibility: future hurricanes could arrive in sequences, not just as isolated events. In some regions, notably along the Gulf Coast and near the Atlantic, studies suggest that successive hurricanes and tropical storms may strike in rapid succession as climate change and rising sea levels reshape the risk landscape. The latest findings appear in Nature Climate Change, where researchers describe a double effect that increases the chances of back-to-back storms in certain areas, potentially up to a rate of once every three years in a few scenarios.
“Sea level rise and climate change amplify the likelihood of consecutive damaging hurricanes as the century progresses,” stated Dazhi Xi, a postdoctoral researcher and lead author of the paper. “What is today a rare event could become more common.”
Researchers led by Ning Lin, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Princeton, first raised questions about the growing frequency of successive hurricanes after a record-breaking season in 2017. That year saw Hurricane Harvey slam into Houston, followed by Irma in the Southeast and Maria in Puerto Rico, prompting officials to rethink emergency planning for clustered storms.
The heavy toll of those events prompted scientists to ask whether climate change could make large clusters of powerful storms more likely and what measures might curb their impact. In late summer 2021, Hurricane Ida struck Louisiana, and Tropical Storm Nicholas followed, making landfall in Texas as a hurricane shortly thereafter.
Increasing trend in recent years
The team’s simulations indicated that sequential storms have become more common along the East Coast and Gulf Coast, though such events remain relatively rare overall. Lin noted that the study highlights a shift in risk patterns rather than a straightforward rise in the total number of storms.
“Consecutive hurricane risks are already part of the picture, so this deserves careful attention,” Lin observed. “There has been a noticeable upward trend in recent years.”
To gauge how likely it is for multiple devastating storms to hit the same region within a short window, the researchers modeled two scenarios: moderate emissions and higher emissions. In both cases, the probability of rapid, successive storms rose significantly. The work emphasizes that the danger is driven by more than just a higher storm count; it is the combination of stronger storms and closer timing that elevates risk for coastal communities.
There is broad scientific agreement that climate change will intensify Atlantic hurricanes in the coming decades. Yet uncertainty remains about whether climate change will increase the total number of storms. Lin’s team found a potential rise in storm intensity could amplify the threat of successive storms even if the overall number stays the same. Other models did not always show the same pattern, but the core finding remains: stronger storms with shorter intervals between them raise exposure for coastal populations.
“The rate at which storms can threaten communities is climbing,” Lin commented. “It is the frequency of dangerous, closely spaced storms that matters more than sheer count.”
The surge in risk is primarily tied to two factors: rising sea levels and increased precipitation from warmer air. Global sea levels are climbing as the climate warms, and the Atlantic coast is especially vulnerable due to its geography. Higher water levels mean storm surges push further inland, while warmer air holds more moisture, fueling heavier rainfall. The combination can transform storms that once posed isolated threats into events that overwhelm infrastructure and emergency response systems when they arrive in quick succession.
That synergy means storms that once went undetected or underestimated could emerge as significant hazards, particularly when several storms strike in a short period. A case in point is Tropical Storm Nicholas in 2021, which caused substantial difficulties in Louisiana largely because the state was still recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Ida.
In summary, the research underscores a shift in how risk is experienced along the Atlantic seaboard. Even if the total number of storms does not rise dramatically, the chance of multiple storms impacting the same region in a compressed timeframe is increasing. The practical implication is clear: coastal communities and planners should anticipate the possibility of storm sequences and strengthen resilience against rapid, successive impacts.
This work contributes to a broader understanding of how climate-driven changes in sea level and rainfall patterns shape extreme weather events, guiding policymakers, engineers, and emergency managers in Canada, the United States, and beyond. The evidence supports proactive strategies to reduce vulnerability, improve surge protection, enhance drainage and flood defenses, and improve response coordination for storms that arrive back-to-back rather than in isolation.
— End —