Tropical cyclones rank among the most destructive natural events on Earth. Climate change is expected to raise both how often and how intensely these storms form in the North Atlantic, potentially heightening economic losses along coastlines. A recent study from Iowa State University in the United States uses high‑resolution climate models and sea surface temperature representations to explore active and inactive hurricane seasons under historical and future climate conditions. The findings are clear: the frequency of tropical cyclones could rise by about two‑thirds during active Atlantic hurricane seasons by the end of the century, signaling a future with more storms and stronger winds in many coastal regions.
Researchers describe active seasons as shaped by a climate pattern known as El Niño, which cools surface waters in the eastern Pacific while warming waters in the northern tropical Atlantic. In such periods, more tropical cyclones are expected to form. Conversely, inactive seasons show a potential 34% increase in cyclone numbers, driven by related oceanic temperature shifts.
A captioned image from August 28, 2005, illustrates the peak intensity of Hurricane Katrina off the U.S. Gulf Coast, a reminder of the damage these systems can cause.
In many simulations, the project also projects stronger storms during both active and inactive hurricane seasons. The complex interplay of ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions appears to amplify cyclone intensity in multiple scenarios.
The research highlights that El Niño and La Niña events – periodic fluctuations that last several years and shift Pacific temperatures – can influence the global climate, droughts, floods, and costly agricultural losses.
Christina Patricola, a professor of geological and atmospheric sciences at Iowa State University and a study leader, notes that future Atlantic hurricane seasons are likely to be more active and storms more powerful.
A separate image shows Typhoon Noru’s impact in the Philippines in 2017, underscoring the wide reach of tropical cyclone effects.
Overall, the researchers argue that reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains a key approach to lowering future risk. Patrick, another contributor, emphasizes that efforts to curb emissions can help limit the magnitude of these rising threats.
A tropical cyclone is a storm system with a closed circulation around a center of low pressure, producing strong winds and heavy rain. When sustained winds exceed 39 miles per hour, it becomes a tropical storm; at speeds above 120 kilometers per hour, it is classified as a hurricane or typhoon depending on the ocean basin.
Terrible African East Waves
Patricola and collaborators have published further findings in Geophysical Research Letters, describing whether persistent low‑pressure waves originating over Africa affect global tropical cyclone activity. Using regional models, they show these waves do not change the yearly count of Atlantic cyclones. However, they observe shifts in storm intensity and in where storms typically form, moving the peak from the North African coast toward the Gulf of Mexico.
Storm surge imagery and related data illustrate the ongoing risk to coastlines and communities. While African East Waves do not reliably predict the annual numbers of Atlantic tropical cyclones, they appear to influence key storm characteristics and landfall patterns.
The researchers stress the need for continued work to uncover the full set of factors driving these extreme events. Future studies will aim to better quantify how different climate drivers interact to shape cyclone risk year after year.
References to foundational studies are acknowledged in scholarly citations.
Notes on data and methods are presented with careful attribution to the scientific literature, reflecting ongoing collaboration and verification within the meteorological community.
The work underscores that climate variability and rising greenhouse gas concentrations together increase the uncertainty and potential severity of tropical cyclones, prompting a cautious approach to coastal planning and disaster readiness.