Studies from Nagoya University illuminate how warming seas reshape typhoon behavior
Researchers at Nagoya University have explored how rising sea temperatures and overall climate change influence the development and strength of tropical cyclones, including typhoons. Their findings appear in the peer reviewed Geophysical Research Letters, a leading science journal in the field of atmospheric and ocean sciences.
Tropical cyclones are among the most powerful and destructive weather events on Earth. In Southeast Asia, communities grapple with the risk these storms pose as the climate warms. Increasing ocean warmth tends to fuel storms, potentially making them more intense and harder to predict. This is because the energy that powers a cyclone is largely drawn from the heat stored in the upper ocean. When sea surface temperatures rise, cyclones can maintain their strength longer and across larger areas, making rapid changes in intensity more likely.
The research team focused on the link between sea surface temperature (SST) and cyclone intensity. They observed that while SST climbs, the rate at which a storm strengthens changes depending on the cyclone’s particular characteristics and structure. In practical terms, even a modest rise in SST can translate into bigger variations in a cyclone’s pressure drop, which translates to stronger winds. The study discusses scenarios such as a 1°C increase in SST, showing that historical storms would have exhibited different intensity traits if warmer conditions had prevailed. To illustrate, Typhoon Trami, which battered Japan in 2018, would have experienced a modest additional pressure drop of about 3.1 hPa, whereas Typhoon Faxai in 2019 would have seen a substantially larger increase, around 16.2 hPa, under the same warming assumptions.
To translate these insights into usable forecasting tools, the researchers developed a new modeling approach. They introduced a dimensionless parameter called the dimensionless storm velocity (S0). This metric helps distinguish storms that are most vulnerable to intensification from those that show resilience against warming trends. In effect, S0 acts as a diagnostic that separates potentially dangerous, warming-driven storms from those less affected by climate forcing.
The study employed a high-resolution coupled regional atmosphere-ocean model. This advanced framework allows for a realistic representation of both the atmospheric process and the ocean’s response to the storm. According to the lead author, the modeling approach can reproduce the strength and structure of powerful typhoons and capture how the ocean reacts to these events. The researchers anticipate that the work will improve quantitative predictions of typhoon intensity in a warming climate and enhance the accuracy of current forecast systems. In their view, these improvements can help officials and communities prepare more effectively for future storms in a changing environment.
Beyond immediate forecasting benefits, the findings contribute to a broader understanding of climate-driven storm behavior. The study highlights the buffering role of atmosphere-ocean interactions in cyclonic processes and underscores the importance of high-resolution models in capturing the nuanced responses of storms to SST changes. As climate models continue to refine predictions of sea temperatures and storm tracks, tools like the S0 parameter offer a practical pathway for translating complex physics into actionable forecast guidance.
In the context of ongoing climate change, the research also points to the value of integrating such parameters into national and regional disaster preparedness plans. Local authorities can use improved forecasts to optimize evacuations, resource allocation, and early warning systems. The work represents a step toward more reliable hazard assessments that reflect the evolving behavior of tropical cyclones in warmer oceans. While there is still uncertainty inherent in regional storm dynamics, the study clearly demonstrates how warmer seas can modify the intensity and life cycle of typhoons, and how scientists are developing better tools to anticipate these changes. The findings are supported by a robust experimental design and have implications for both scientific understanding and public safety, particularly for weather-sensitive populations in the Asia-Pacific region. [Citation: Nagoya University and Geophysical Research Letters]
Overall, the research emphasizes that climate-driven changes in sea temperatures will influence typhoon intensity in ways that are measurable, modelable, and increasingly important for forecasting accuracy and risk reduction. By bridging oceanic and atmospheric science with practical forecasting metrics like S0, the study provides a clearer picture of how warming oceans shape the most powerful storms and what that means for communities that live in their paths.