Interesting patterns emerge: cleaner air in Europe and North America seems linked to more hurricanes in the Atlantic. A government-supported study led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows that a 50% drop in particulate pollution in Europe and the United States over the last two decades aligns with about a one-third rise in Atlantic storm formation. In contrast, the Pacific shows the opposite trend, with higher pollution and fewer typhoons. The researchers publish these findings in Science Advances (citation: Science Advances).
NOAA hurricane scientist Hiroyuki Murakami ran multiple climate simulations to explore shifts in storm activity across regions. The observed changes cannot be explained by natural climate cycles alone, and there is an association with aerosol pollution from industry and vehicles. These aerosols consist of sulfur particles and droplets suspended in the air, which can affect air quality and visibility.
Scientists have long understood that aerosol pollution tends to cool the atmosphere, sometimes offsetting some warming from burning fossil fuels. Earlier studies connected this cooling to more Atlantic storms, but Murakami identifies a more direct mechanism that links pollution to storm behavior.
Hurricanes over the North Atlantic Pan
Hurricanes require warm surface water to fuel their growth, and they are hindered by wind shear, which can disrupt storm structure. Cleaner air in the Atlantic and dirtier air in the Pacific, driven by pollution in Asia, influence both surface warming and wind patterns, according to Murakami.
Aerosol pollution in the Atlantic has declined since 1980
In the North Atlantic, aerosol pollution peaked around 1980 and has fallen since. This reduction in cooling aerosols means that greenhouse-gas–driven warming is less masked, allowing sea surface temperatures to rise further, Murakami explains.
Moreover, the absence of cooling aerosols helped shift the jet stream northward, reducing its tendency to disrupt developing tornadoes.
“That shift helps explain why the Atlantic has been unusually active since the mid-1990s and was comparatively quiet in the 1970s and 1980s,” notes Jim Kossin, a climatologist. Aerosol pollution provided relief in those earlier decades, but the subsequent decline creates a reversal in today’s storm dynamics.
In tropical cyclone activity, other factors such as La Niña and El Niño, natural Pacific temperature fluctuations, and additional climate drivers come into play. Murakami emphasizes that human-caused climate change, driven by greenhouse gases, will continue to influence long-term climate patterns as aerosol levels decline.
In the Pacific region, aerosol pollution from Asian countries rose by about 50% between 1980 and 2010 and has since begun to ease. Tropical cyclone formation from 2001 to 2020 was about 14% lower than from 1980 to 2000, highlighting regional differences in aerosol impacts on storm formation.
Further south, reduced aerosol pollution in Europe and the United States has altered global weather patterns in a way that connects to fewer storms in the southern hemisphere, including near Australia.
Pollution poses risks well beyond hurricanes
While a potential rise in Atlantic hurricanes draws concern, the broader human cost of air pollution dwarfs cyclone impacts. Each year, air pollution contributes to millions of deaths worldwide, underscoring the urgency of emission reductions regardless of storm activity. Public health experts emphasize this broader risk alongside climate concerns.
Reducing emissions remains essential as part of a larger strategy to protect both air quality and climate stability, alongside efforts to understand how aerosols interact with natural climate cycles and human-caused warming. These insights come from ongoing analyses of long-term climate data and model-based projections with attribution to peer-reviewed studies (citation: Science Advances).
References: Science Advances, atmospheric and climate science literature, and attribution studies on aerosols and tropical cyclone activity (citation: Science Advances).
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