There is a phrase that has dominated media and political discourse in Germany for weeks: a “warm autumn.” Journalists and policymakers use this idea to describe potential scenarios in which the country could face social unrest and political instability if inflation keeps climbing, if the energy crisis worsens, or if recession deepens and energy shortages threaten a partial industrial shutdown. Such a sequence could lead to higher unemployment and shortages of certain goods.
The message from the federal government contains inconsistencies. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has signaled that German authorities could respond effectively to emerging problems, even amid protests and a difficult social climate. Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has stressed that the nation will continue to adapt and rely on social solidarity, even as a large portion of the population experiences a sharp erosion of purchasing power.
“We can already see that people are deeply affected by the crises. We face an overlapping crisis where the lower economic strata feel real existential anxieties and the middle classes fear losing social status, which breeds insecurity and anxiety,” noted Jana Faus, co-founder of the survey firm Pollytix, describing the mood captured by El Periódico de Catalunya from the Prensa Ibérica group.
Opportunity for the AfD
This distrust is reflected in voting intent polls. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been regaining momentum for weeks, with some estimates placing the party above 13 percent. Plagued by internal conflict, the AfD had been losing about 10 percent of its support in recent years. The current climate, full of uncertainties and amplified by a government messaging strategy that many see as overconfident, presents a challenge for the established parties and a potential opening for the far right.
Pollytix also cautions about another risk tied to Germany’s recent history: among militants within extremist circles, particularly groups on the far right and neo-Nazis, there remains a latent danger during times of strain.
A second opposition force involved in the “warm autumn” narrative is the Left, a coalition comprising post-communist East German parties and former West German social democrats. After narrowly surviving a Bundestag challenge in the last federal election, the Left is seeking a stronger political profile and a renewed appeal to voters, advocating broader coverage for workers, retirees, and the unemployed. The Left and the AfD share a tendency to use similar crisis-language, though their political stances diverge in key issues.
Double-Digit Inflation
Germany, a country rooted in the memory of economic hardship, has seen inflation climb to a multi-decade high, with September figures reaching a near 11 percent. Analysts describe the moment as the onset of stagflation, a dangerous mix of stagnating growth and rising prices. Some argue this is driven by supply shortages, especially in energy and value-added chains, rather than weak demand. The president of the Ifo Institute, Clemens Fuest, warned that stagflation constrains policy effectiveness since weak demand undercuts the impact of any fiscal or monetary intervention.
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Scholz government approved three aid packages aimed at citizens and businesses, combining direct transfers with tax relief, mobilizing roughly 95 billion euros. Yet the popularity of the ruling coalition — comprised of the Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals — has continued to dip, signaling a growing gap between authorities and the public in a volatile and uncertain environment that fuels a longing for certainty.
Experts consulted by this publication say the “warm autumn” scenario is likely to intensify social unrest and political instability, though they also acknowledge that inflation’s social impact cannot be dismissed. The magnitude of future protests remains hard to predict. Alexander Kriwoluzky, head of macroeconomic analysis at the DIW Institute, suggested that while Germany’s response might stay manageable, other European countries, such as Italy where elections loom, could face more pronounced shifts in governance if turmoil deepens elsewhere. In such a case, Germany might feel the reverberations at some point.