The extreme right party Alternative for Germany, known as AfD, stands as the sole force of its kind in the spectrum that has entered the German Parliament in second place, closely trailing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party. The conservative union remains ahead, while Scholz’s Greens and the Free Democrats have seen their poll numbers slip.
According to an ARD poll, the AfD would secure about 18 percent of the vote if a general election were held today. That same poll places Scholz’s Social Democrats about eleven points behind the CDU/CSU conservative bloc. This marks the first time Friedrich Merz, long a rival within the conservative family, leads the opposition in parliament, stepping into a role once associated with Angela Merkel and her centrist course.
The AfD’s rise in the polls carries weight, even though no election appears imminent. For Scholz and his coalition partners the Greens and the FDP, the political moment contains both pressure and risk. The Greens, particularly, have seen a dip in public affection, and their two most prominent ministers, Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock, have faced renewed scrutiny from voters who previously supported a broader range of parties. Habeck in particular has faced questions about policy choices, including proposals to phase out gas and diesel heating in favor of renewable alternatives.
AfD excluded from government deals
Current polling shows Greens support around 15 percent, while the FDP sits near 7 percent and the Leftward group faces a potential drop below the 5 percent threshold that would keep it out of parliament. In contrast with some other European nations, the AfD is not considered a partner for government formation among the major parties in Germany. The conservative bloc and other mainstream parties have repeatedly stated that any cooperation with the AfD would be a red line, a stance reinforced at successive CDU congresses.
Still, regional branches of the AfD sometimes push for dialogue, especially in the eastern parts of Germany where the party has established a foothold in certain areas. These regions have seen internal political contestation as the CDU faces pressure in regional contests, and some rely on the AfD to influence coalitions, a move not often accepted at the national level.
The AfD entered the German Parliament in 2017, marking a notable moment in postwar politics. The party initially rose in a context defined by skepticism toward the euro and the bailouts for southern European economies. In recent years, its message has shifted toward stricter immigration policies and a stance against what it sees as excessive government intervention. The AfD aligns with a broader European far right in its general orientation, including ties to broader antiestablishment and sometimes anti vaccine movements, and it maintains connections with factions at the Kremlin level. These dynamics shape the party’s perception and its role within Germany and the wider European political landscape, as critics and supporters alike debate its impact on policy and political culture.