Bavaria, a region long associated with Oktoberfest, cautious traditionalism, vibrant economy, and strong industrial prowess, is voting for its regional Parliament this Sunday. About 9.4 million residents were eligible to vote. The Christian Social Union (CSU) has led Bavaria since 1950, though it no longer enjoys an absolute majority and faces a gradual decline. Two regional parties, Free Voters and, on the national stage, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), are drawing support away. Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the Social Democrats, along with the Greens, are positioned to finish behind the strongest conservative bloc.
Fight between the radical right
The CSU, led by regional premier Markus Söder, has tended to pull further to the right than the CDU, the party of former chancellors Helmut Kohl and Angela Merkel, and now guided by Friedrich Merz. The CSU has governed with support from Free Voters, a regional party that expanded its influence through the period. The coalition faced controversy after a scandal involving its leader, attributed to his brother.
On immigration issues, the Free Voters share a stance similar to the AfD, yet they avoid the security rhetoric that often accompanies far-right rhetoric. The Free Voters aim to build a national footprint in the 2025 general elections.
Fight for second place
According to polls, the CSU leads with around 37 percent. Competing for second place are the Greens, Free Voters, and AfD, each polling in the mid-teens to low teens, creating a tight battle. While the Greens are unlikely to partner with the CSU, finishing second would still be strategically valuable. The two radical-right forces are in a quiet contest of influence. In the final stretch, the AfD emphasized victimhood and condemned threats against its leadership, a tactic seen as a response to a desperate segment of its electorate seeking sympathy.
A hostile environment for any chancellor
Relations between Bavaria and the federal capital have historically been tense, a pattern dating back to Prussian times and shaping how state leaders saw each other. Prominent figures have often clashed publicly, including federal and Bavarian leaders who directed sharp remarks at events. Olaf Scholz, leading the Social Democrats, has struggled to gain stronger support amid a broader government slowdown. From the Bavarian perspective, the Greens and Liberals are viewed as a tripartite alliance that complicates policy authority. The SPD is expected to fall to fifth in Bavaria, with its Liberal partners hovering near the 4 percent mark, potentially dropping out of parliament.
Borders and asylum
Bavaria did not need to reintroduce or tighten border controls because it never fully eliminated them. Regional authorities have maintained checks in coordination with Germany since 2015, when the country received a large influx of refugees, predominantly through Bavaria and Austria. This stance preceded a broader European push to strengthen Schengen borders along Central and Eastern Europe. Bavaria also anticipated the anti-asylum sentiment that spread across Europe during the 2015 crisis, arguing for measured asylum policies. At the same time, the region faces labor shortages across many sectors, a challenge tied to its economic strength.
During the Merkel era, calls for stricter refugee measures were common in Bavaria, but the chancellor resisted. Today, debates center on social benefits and faster integration into the labor market. Bavaria’s industrial core remains a key economic driver, yet it faces the same workforce gaps seen elsewhere.
Hesse, another poisonous choice
Elections are also held this Sunday in Hesse, the financial hub where Frankfurt sits. With about 4.3 million voters, the campaign is challenging for the Social Democrats. The region hosts the European Central Bank and has a political lineup that includes the Greens and a coalition partner. The CDU is predicted to capture roughly a third of the vote, potentially doubling the outlook for the SPD and the AfD, with the Greens close behind. The Liberal parties hover near the threshold to win seats, signaling a tight national balance.