Merz and the CDU: Navigating the rise of the AfD and coalition dynamics in Germany

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In Germany, a heated political moment centers on plans and partnerships within the conservative bloc. A veteran figure in the party landscape, Friedrich Merz, recently voiced a sharp critique of the far right party Alternative for Germany, or AfD, labeling it xenophobic and anti-Semitic as its stance grew more radical. The remarks followed a poll on public broadcasting ARD that placed the AfD second in voting intentions, a result Merz described as serious yet revealing of deeper currents within the party system. Merz noted that the CDU would not form alliances with the AfD, a line that aligns with the long-standing approach of the party under Angela Merkel and continues to shape strategic discussions across regional and national levels. For Merz, this stance also signals a broader warning to the European neighborhood, where a number of states have seen conservative or far-right coalitions emerge or persist, complicating cross-border cooperation while some regional CDU delegations in eastern Germany push to engage more with the AfD in certain contexts. (Source: ARD reports on the poll and party positions)

Regaining influence is a central objective for Merz. The CDU has endured leadership changes since Merkel stepped down as chancellor in 2021, and Merz now leads the party’s rightward flank after decades of close competition with Merkel’s centrist approach. Merkel gradually distanced herself from party operations, yet Merz now seeks to consolidate a conservative core while maintaining legitimate ties with the Christian Social Union in Bavaria as part of the wider CDU/CSU alliance. This dynamic shapes internal debates and the party’s approach to Congresses and policy direction, with Merz aiming to balance a firm stance against the AfD with the practicalities of coalition politics in a crowded German political landscape. (Source: internal party discussions and public broadcasts)

The public polling landscape suggests tricky arithmetic for the CDU and its coalition partners. In the latest ARD survey, the CDU/CSU sits around 29 percent, with the AfD at about 18 percent. The Social Democratic Party, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, sits in a similar range, while the Greens and the Free Democratic Party trail with mid-teens and single-digit percentages, respectively. These numbers reflect a volatile electorate that rewards clear positions on security, immigration, and energy policy, while also highlighting the delicate balance required to build stable governance. (Source: ARD poll summary)

The AfD began as a Eurosceptic movement but later attracted a broad coalition of voters disenchanted with migration and refugee policies, particularly during the 2015 crisis. Support for the AfD is driven by concerns over immigration and cultural change, even as environmental policy priorities and climate action remain contentious for some voters who favor other parties. Polls indicate that many AfD supporters see immigration as the defining issue, while a notable portion express reservations about environmental measures advanced by the Greens and other coalition partners. These trends help explain the party’s appeal in certain regions and the ongoing challenge for mainstream parties to address voter concerns while maintaining their own ideological commitments. (Source: party platforms and voter surveys)

Merz contends that the rise of the AfD reflects dissatisfaction with the current multilateral administration and its handling of governance. Scholz, for his part, has characterized the AfD as a party shaped by grudges, arguing that the government must take necessary but sometimes unpopular steps to keep the economy and energy sector on track for future resilience. The conversation underscores a central tension in German politics: the request for clear, enforceable limits on far-right collaboration versus the practical reality of regional power dynamics, where coalition realities can complicate overt opposition to disruptive political movements. (Source: public statements and government briefings)

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