Global shifts in the world order are shaping Germany’s fiscal and defense debates as conservative leader Friedrich Merz calls for lifting the debt brake for defense spending through a fast track, addressing the outgoing parliament while Olaf Scholz’s government remains in office. “When history comes knocking, you should open the door”, he argued, a view echoed by Lars Klingbeil, the Social Democrats’ leader.
Klingbeil framed the moment as a push to back a two-pronged financial package for defense and infrastructure that would require a two-thirds majority in parliament. It would free defense spending that exceeds 1% of GDP from the debt brake and create a special half‑trillion‑euro fund for infrastructure. The hoped-for two-thirds majority could prove impractical once the new Bundestag, elected in March, is sworn in. The ultrare right party AfD would become the second-largest force, and with The Left’s seats could empower a blocking minority against any constitutional amendment.
“You will go down in history as the undertaker of the debt brake that promised to defend,” said AfD leader Alice Weidel, directing her remark at Merz. The conservative bloc, like the Liberals, rejected repeatedly Scholz’s proposals and his Green partners’ reform ideas for the debt brake, the constitutional mechanism that caps indebtedness at 0.35% of GDP. Economists generally agree that this rule has weighed on Germany’s economy, yet Merz and the Liberals clung to it. The Liberals’ pressure helped trigger the collapse of Scholz’s coalition.
Legitimate Strategy or Electoral Deception?
The tactic of seeking in extremis backing from a parliament that has been formally in session but inactive for weeks has been denounced as elector deception by AfD, The Left, the Liberals, and the Greens. Three petitions have been filed with the Constitutional Court—one by AfD and two by The Left—challenging the use of a parliament that does not reflect the votes cast in the election.
The Greens hold the key to advancing Merz’s plan. Their votes are necessary for a two-thirds majority, but they resist a blank check without quantifiable climate targets. “We will not back his tricks,” said Katharina Dröge, head of the Greens’ parliamentary group.
It remains to be seen whether the Greens will maintain their opposition in the final vote, scheduled for next Tuesday. Merz has launched intense negotiations to win climate concessions. It would be far more difficult for Merz to recruit support from the new Left, which calls for abolishing the debt brake entirely.
Government Pact in Record Time?
Scholz and his ministers attended the Bundestag session as mere observers. Formal negotiations for a coalition between the conservative Merz and Klingbeil, who would lead the Social Democrats’ delegation, were set to begin that Thursday. Some 256 people across 16 working groups are involved. According to a schedule leaked by German media, Merz aims to have the pact ready by Easter to submit it to Parliament on April 23.
If successful, the pace would be lightning-fast. Angela Merkel needed nearly six months from her last electoral victory to win re-election in 2018. Scholz, by contrast, took 73 days for his single term.
Merz has stepped on the accelerator. Even before formal negotiations began, he had already secured principled agreements on Defense and Infrastructure, as well as a tougher migration policy, a cornerstone of his program.