The CDU clearly secured victory in North Rhine-Westphalia during this Sunday’s regional elections. Early results align closely with final outcomes, showing the Christian Democrats at about 35 percent. The Social Democrats, who trailed in the polls, hold roughly 27.5 to 28 percent, leaving them unable to shape the next government on their own. Hendrik Wüst, a CDU member, remains the current head of government in Germany’s most populous state.
Following the conservatives, the Greens emerged as the second major beneficiaries on election day. The eco-liberals gained nearly 12 percentage points since the 2017 regional elections, reaching around 18 percent of the vote. This strong showing puts the Greens in a favorable position to form a governing coalition with the CDU.
The remaining share of votes is expected to fall between 5.5 and 6 percent. The Free Democratic Party, FDP, fluctuates around 5 percent, while the Alternative for Germany, AfD, hovers near this threshold. Entry into the regional parliament requires at least 5 percent. The FDP stands out as the main loser, dropping more than seven points, while the AfD experiences only a modest setback. Yet the far right does not appear poised to secure a solid foothold in the western states.
Die Linke, a coalition that includes former social democrats and post-communists, is projected to secure about 2.2 percent of the vote and will remain shut out of the North Rhine-Westphalia Parliament. Positioned on the far left of the parliamentary spectrum, the party faces growing political marginalization and questions about its viability. Regional turnout was subdued, with just over 56 percent of eligible voters casting ballots, a decline of nearly ten percentage points from 2017.
possible coalitions
For five years, Prime Minister Wüst has governed with the FDP’s liberal faction. The liberal surge observed on Sunday appears to rule out the reformation of that exact coalition. Seat distribution suggests three plausible government formations: a CDU Greens coalition, a Red Green government comprised of the SPD and Greens, or a three party Traffic Light alliance involving the SPD, Greens and FDP, mirroring the pattern seen at the federal level under Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The picture will shape the state’s political landscape in the coming term.
Chancellor Scholz’s party faced a setback in this election cycle in Germany. In parallel, Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader who hails from North Rhine-Westphalia, secured a strong victory that reinforces his leadership of the party. Merz, who cast his vote in the state, quickly signaled the results as a signal for national politics. He stated that the CDU has regained its momentum and that the party’s course has received broad approval, a sentiment shared after the initial projections were announced.