This spring proved unusual. Thermometers across Spain posted historic highs, with multiple spells of exceptionally hot weather for the season. Early studies point to a clear link between climate change and the unusually hot April in the southern regions, suggesting this pattern becomes far more likely. Scientists warn that the trend will recur and intensify toward the end of the century. Summer competes with spring, accelerating the shift in seasons and pushing temperatures above 30ºC three times more often than today.
A recent informative article signed by climatologists from the Foundation for Climate Research (FIC) highlights the long term consequences of climate change for Spain. Using data from the IPCC’s sixth assessment report, the piece explores how these trends could manifest in the nine Spanish provinces, predicting the number of days above 30ºC, the onset of the first heat day, and the peak temperatures to be expected.
In this context, researchers indicate that the same climatic future could bring up to three times more hot days per decade across different provinces.
Hot days increase through spring
Seville is projected to reach as many as 346 hot days by the end of the century under the most pessimistic emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), equating to about 82 days per decade with temperatures above 30ºC in spring.
Madrid could rise from 9 hot days per decade to 156 by century’s end. Ourense would move from 2 to 56 hot days per decade.
Consequently, in future springs Seville may average 34 days above 30ºC each year, Madrid about two weeks, and Ourense around five days. The result is roughly three times the historic daily average, according to Dominic Royé, climatologist and head of Data Science at the FIC.
Zaragoza shows a rise from 19 to 189 days above 30ºC per decade, assuming global warming reaches an additional 3°C by century’s end.
By the late spring period, Ourense could see hotter days than currently observed in Málaga and Valencia could surpass Córdoba’s present totals.
Valencia currently records about 3 hot days in spring; by 2100 this could stretch to roughly 154 days. Murcia could climb from 3 to 102 hot days.
Yet temperatures will not necessarily stay capped at 30ºC. Some days may exceed that threshold, depending on the region. Maximums could reach around 35ºC during spring. In Seville, the high could rise from the current 29.3ºC to about 35.2ºC by century’s end if emissions remain on the current path, while a slightly more optimistic scenario (RCP 4.5) still yields around 32.4ºC.
In Zaragoza, spring highs might increase from 25.6ºC to 31.7ºC, and in Ourense from 22.3ºC to about 27.9ºC. These figures reflect the 95th percentile, meaning a five percent chance of higher values.
Heat arrives roughly a month and a half earlier
Spring will not only be warmer but also noticeably earlier. In Seville, even under the most pessimistic scenario, the first day above 30ºC could occur by late March, nearly a month and a half earlier than the historical pattern. In Madrid, such days could appear in the last week of April rather than the first week of June. Northern Spain could see Ourense hitting the mid May period instead of early July.
Royé emphasizes that what seems impossible now could become the norm in the future. He explains that summers will become longer during the year, but springs will lose the most ground with more abrupt transitions. Winters may shorten and disappear sooner.
In addition to potential droughts, there are signs that Southern Spain could resemble North Africa more closely. The researcher notes that drought has broad effects, touching economy and society alike.
Reference work: sciencemediacentre.es Calor extremo en abril un evento extraordinario antesala del futuro
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