This spring stood out for all the wrong reasons. Thermometers across Spain posted record highs, with several spikes of unusually warm weather for the season. Early studies point to a clear link between climate change and the unusually warm April in the southern part of the country, suggesting this pattern will become more common and more intense by the century’s end. The takeaway is stark: summers will bleed into spring, and the season will feel shorter but more extreme, with temperatures pushing well beyond 30ºC three times more often than today.
A recent informative article by climatologists from the Foundation for Climate Research (FIC) underscores the medium and long-term consequences of a warming Spain. Using data from the IPCC’s sixth assessment report, researchers outline how many days above 30ºC a first heat wave would bring, and the expected peak temperatures across the nine Spanish provinces.
Warm days in spring; expected evolution Dominique Roye/NASA
In this regard, the study highlights that many provinces could see as many as three times more hot days per decade as the climate shifts.
The hot days will increase in the spring
In Seville, under the most pessimistic emissions scenario, the decade could see about 82 hot days above 30ºC in spring, with a total of roughly 346 such days by century’s end. Madrid is projected to rise from about 9 days per decade to 156, while Ourense could climb from 2 to 56 days per decade.
As a result, Seville would average about 34 spring days above 30ºC each year, Madrid about two weeks, and Ourense around five days annually. The finding, emphasized by Dominic Royé, a climatologist and head of Data Science at FIC, indicates a threefold increase in hot days compared with historical norms.
For Zaragoza, the same model projects a rise from more than 19 days to 189 per decade, assuming global warming reaches roughly 3ºC by the end of the century.
In late spring, Ourense may experience hotter days than current conditions in Malaga and Valencia could exceed the present counts seen in Córdoba.
Malvarrosa beach in Valencia efe
Valencia, which averaged three hot days in spring, could see around 154 hot days by 2100. Murcia could jump from three to about 102 days.
It is important to note that temperatures are not strictly capped at 30ºC. The researchers caution that some days could reach up to 35ºC in certain regions. In Seville, the maximum could rise from the current 29.3ºC to about 35.2ºC by century’s end under a high-emissions trajectory, with 32.4ºC possible under a more optimistic scenario.
In Zaragoza, spring highs could climb from 25.6ºC today to about 31.7ºC, while Ourense might rise from 22.3ºC to around 27.9ºC. Royé notes that these figures reflect averages across the 95th percentile, leaving a 5% chance of even higher values.
The heat will come about a month and a half earlier
Spring will not only be hotter but will arrive sooner. In Seville, the first day above 30ºC could occur by the end of March, almost six weeks earlier than the historical pattern of early May. Madrid could see these temperatures in the last week of April rather than the first week of June, and northern Spain, like Ourense, may experience mid-May heat instead of the usual early July.
Royé explains that the trajectory being observed now might become normal in the future. He describes a climate where summer begins to encroach on spring, and the transition becomes more abrupt as the seasons lose their traditional timing.
Alongside possible droughts, there is a growing concern that southern Spain could resemble parts of North Africa in dryness. The researcher warns that drought has broad economic and social impacts, and that the problem is already unfolding in the data and projections.
Reference work: https://sciencemediacentre.es/calor-extremo-en-abril-un-evento-extraordinario-antesala-del-futuro
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