Decarbonization remains slow, yet the shift toward electric vehicles is increasingly cutting into global oil demand. The trend is clear: fewer barrels are needed as more clean transportation options appear, especially in urban settings. In 2021, world oil demand contracted by 3.3 percent, a figure linked to the growing use of vehicles powered by electric propulsion rather than traditional internal combustion engines. This decline aligns with data gathered over the prior year and reported by industry sources and aggregators that track energy consumption shifts.
BloombergNEF data compiled over the last twelve months, as summarized by forocochoselectricos.com, indicate that roughly 1.5 million barrels per day of oil consumption were avoided in 2021. This figure is the manifestation of the 3.3 percent drop in demand from the previous year and serves as a tangible signal of the transition underway in mobility and energy use.
When placed in a global context, this avoided volume is comparable to about one-fifth of Russia’s oil exports before the Ukraine conflict. While still modest on the world stage, the trajectory is unmistakable: the share of oil demand linked to motorized transport is shrinking, and the decline is likely to continue as electrification accelerates.
A notable nuance emerges from the data: the perceived drivers of reduced oil consumption are not solely passenger cars with electric propulsion. In several markets, electric two-wheelers—mopeds, motorcycle, and tricycles—have driven a sizable shift. In 2021, this segment experienced a 67 percent drop in demand, underscoring how rapid electrification can reshape urban mobility patterns beyond traditional four-wheeled vehicles.
How is this happening? The explanation lies in Asia, where two-wheeled transportation dominates city life and electric powertrains are rapidly displacing combustion engines in this form of mobility. The shift is visible in metropolitan areas across the region, where charging infrastructure and vehicle affordability are improving steadily.
A chart illustrating these trends shows a clear reduction in oil demand driven by electric-powered transport. While cars still outnumber buses, the visual data highlight a striking result: electric buses contribute to a meaningful oil-saving effect, sometimes matching or exceeding the impact of private cars. The higher consumption per bus relative to a standard car makes their electrification particularly influential in aggregate oil demand.
Bloomberg notes that the ongoing oil-demand resilience in recent years is partly due to the popularity of SUVs and other gasoline-using vehicles, which consume more fuel than typical passenger cars. In parallel, 2021 also marked a notable shift: electric commercial vehicles began to influence oil demand for the first time, contributing roughly a 4 percent reduction within the broader transport sector.
When comparing 2021 with earlier years, the avoided oil demand of 1.5 million barrels per day suggests a long-term trend. Bloomberg NEF projects that the cumulative effect could reach about 7 million barrels per day avoided within eight years, roughly corresponding to the prewar scale of Russian oil exports. If the current trajectory persists, the model foresees a potential 16 million barrels per day reduction by 2035—an ambitious target that depends on the continued electrification of both passenger and freight mobility. Yet the scenario remains hypothetical because hydrocarbons will still power some vehicles for years to come.
The overarching pattern is clear. Global land mobility is moving toward electrification, with progress already evident and no clear reversal in sight. At the same time, new energy options—such as hydrogen-powered engines—are beginning to appear on the horizon, signaling a broader decarbonization pathway. The ongoing question for experts remains whether the pace of oil disarmament can meet the urgency of the climate emergency demanding rapid action.
Reference article: [Forocochoselectricos] forocochoselectricos.com/2022/05/si-los-vehiculos-electricos-retuveron-la-demanda-de-petroleo-en-un-33-en-2021.html
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