The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports a notable shift in Russia’s oil trade dynamics. In August, Russia averaged 7.14 million barrels of oil exported each day, and by September that figure rose to 7.6 million barrels per day. This uptick contributed to a monthly revenue reach of 18.8 billion dollars, marking the highest income level observed since July 2022. The IEA notes that this revenue peak sits within a broader pattern of market activity and supply choices shaping the European energy landscape.
According to the agency’s assessment, revenues from crude oil exports gained about 1.5 billion dollars, while revenues tied to the export and distribution of petroleum products increased by roughly 0.3 billion dollars. Despite these gains, total revenues still trailed the previous year’s total by about 2.6 billion dollars. The observed export growth was driven by stronger supply of both refined petroleum products and crude oil, with increases of 220 thousand barrels per day for products and 250 thousand barrels per day for crude oil.
In September, the overall supply level surpassed the September 2022 benchmark by about 100 thousand barrels per day. China and India continued to sit at the center of Russia’s oil export destinations, with China witnessing a substantial rise in purchases, registering an increase of roughly 270 thousand barrels per day when measured against the prior period.
Since March, Russia has voluntarily reduced its oil production by about 500 thousand barrels per day through the end of 2024. Concurrently, export volumes have been trimmed by around 300 thousand barrels per day starting in August, yet production in September showed a small sequential rebound, increasing by about 10 thousand barrels per day compared with August to reach 9.48 million barrels per day. These adjustments reflect a cautious balancing of supply commitments and market demand in a shifting global oil framework.
In related commentary, Saudi Arabia has signaled a willingness to ease or adjust production as market conditions require, signaling flexibility in its approach to global supply management. This stance aligns with broader efforts by major producers to respond to evolving demand patterns and price signals in international energy markets.
Earlier, the IEA acknowledged the possibility of a substantial price differential for natural gas shipments moving from Russia to the European Union, noting that discounts in the order of 65 percent could be attainable on gas flows under certain contractual and market circumstances. This observation underscores the interplay between gas and oil markets and the wider energy security considerations faced by consuming regions in Europe.