According to data compiled for March, Russia’s revenue from oil exports dropped by 43 percent year over year, landing at 12.7 billion dollars. Yet the figure rose by about one billion dollars compared with February, highlighting a mixed picture that combines weaker pricing with firmer export volumes. The IEA analysis explains that the value fall reflects ongoing market shifts, while the month’s gains in revenue show resilience in trade flows despite sanctions and a tighter global environment. The change underscores the dual forces shaping Russia’s oil trade: pricing dynamics that compress income on a yearly basis, and export activity that remains robust enough to lift monthly revenue from one period to the next.
In physical terms, March 2023 saw Russia’s oil exports by sea reach their highest level since April 2020, driven by a stronger flow of petroleum products. The export earnings figure rose by one billion dollars from February to 12.7 billion, signifying a rebound in shipments even as annual revenues declined. Market observers note that the March increase in earnings closely tracks gains in physical shipments, signaling that product mix and shipping patterns played a meaningful role in the monthly outcome. Analysts emphasize that while the year-on-year drop remains substantial, the momentum in March indicates a temporary strength in export activity that could influence near-term revenue trajectories.
IEA observers also report that the March export volume of Russian oil delivered by sea reached about 8.1 million barrels per day, marking the highest level since April 2020. The March figure reflects an uptick of roughly 0.6 million barrels per day compared with February, illustrating a tangible expansion in seaborne supply. This development comes amid longstanding export routes and logistical arrangements that have persisted despite sanctions and shifting demand patterns across major markets. The data suggest a persistent ability to sustain elevated export flows, supported by the global market’s demand for crude and refined products.
During the same period, deliveries of Russian petroleum products increased as well. In March, these shipments averaged about 3.1 million barrels per day, which is roughly 450,000 barrels per day higher than February’s levels. The rise in product shipments contributes to the broader narrative of a more active export profile for Russia in March, even as the annual revenue picture remains constrained by price dynamics and external pressures. Analysts point out that the expansion in product exports may reflect strategic routing choices, refinery demand, and refinements in supply chains that enable higher volumes to reach various markets. Industry observers caution that while monthly gains are encouraging, the longer-term revenue outlook will continue to hinge on global price trends, currency effects, and the ongoing geopolitical context that shapes energy trade.
Overall, the March 2023 data illustrate a nuanced picture. While year-over-year revenue declined sharply due to lower prices and market constraints, monthly shipments and the mix of crude and product exports showed notable strength. The IEA notes that the peak in sea-delivered oil volume and the rise in petroleum product deliveries combined to push March’s export performance higher than February, even as the annual comparison remained negative. In practical terms, this means Russia managed to sustain elevated export activity in the spring period, aided by increased product flows and favorable shipping conditions relative to February. Market participants will be watching how price movements, sanctions dynamics, and demand shifts influence the trajectory of Russia’s oil trade in the months ahead. The latest figures, attributed to IEA analysis, capture a moment when physical supply and market pricing intersect to shape the country’s export earnings profile for early 2023.