Tourists who usually rise with the Andalusian sun this summer chose the cooler pull of Galicia, Asturias, and the Basque Country. The heat drove a shift in travel patterns as climate pressures pushed visitors to seek relief in other corners of the peninsula. For three decades, researchers have explored how climate change touches tourism, but 2023 marked a turning point: water shortages, soaring highs, heavy rains, and a series of heat waves began to reshape where and how people vacation. A regional risk assessment notes that Spain’s sun-and-beach focus makes the sector especially vulnerable to climate swings, with crowded destinations and the need to manage overuse and energy demand in peak heat. The Bank of Spain’s governor weighed in on this risk, underscoring that Spain’s “golden goose” could falter as temperatures rise and patterns shift. The JRC’s regional tourism outlook estimates that a 3–4 degree Celsius increase could cut July and August demand by around 10 percent, a trend that would ripple through regional economies and the country’s GDP. The challenge is clear: climate change is not a local blip but a regional reorder of where people travel and how much they spend.
Beyond the general impact, the southern coast and the Balearics face pronounced vulnerabilities. JRC projections suggest yearly declines in visitor numbers for regions like Murcia and the Balearics, especially if temperatures jump by four degrees. Heat waves tend to damp restaurant spending, entertainment budgets, and retail purchases in midsummer, a consequence quantified by CaixaBank Research economists and in turn linked to broader economic health. The broader question remains: will tourism in Spain adapt quickly enough to weather disruption and shifting preferences? The latest statistics show tourism contributing a meaningful share to GDP, but the trajectory depends on how destinations respond to climate signals and evolving traveler expectations.
Diego Santos, a tourism expert and professor at EAE Business School, characterizes adaptation as a work in progress. He notes that resilience has appeared in pockets, driven by infrastructure readiness and the flexibility of destinations. Heat waves, he argues, pose a significant hurdle for southern coastal cities, prompting uses like indoor activities that raise energy use. Other risks follow: water scarcity can deter visitors to specific spots; extreme weather erodes appeal for activities such as diving; changes in biodiversity, including more jellyfish or mosquitoes, can alter the quality of a holiday. Raquel Santos of Fi Group emphasizes that a decline in climate comfort nudges travelers toward different places and different times of year.
Transportation remains a central hurdle. Air travel accounts for a large share of tourism emissions, a pressing issue given that most international travelers enter by air. Reducing emissions from transport while maintaining access to diverse destinations will shape Spain’s tourism future. The sun-and-beach model, deeply embedded in the country’s tourism identity, faces climate-induced shifts that could blur regional distinctions and require new strategies to prevent overcrowding and preserve appeal at a distance from peak season.
Regional dynamics: north rising, south pressured
The northern regions—Cantabria, Asturias, and Galicia—are expected to record increases in overnight stays under certain warming scenarios, while some southern and island markets confront steeper challenges. Increases of roughly 7.2 percent, 4.2 percent, and 3.2 percent in overnight stays are cited for these northern areas according to the JRC. Yet a four-degree global warming scenario could push climate zones northward, altering the mix of habitats and seasonal patterns along the Cantabrian coast. This creates a paradox: northern urban centers may gain visitors, while southern economies that rely heavily on beach and snow tourism could suffer more acutely from reduced demand and slower local employment growth.
Nevertheless, many observers remain optimistic about a more balanced kind of tourism in Spain. Destination managers in beach and snow hubs are urged to diversify offerings and attract travelers outside the traditional summer peak. In regions like Benidorm and other Levante sites, the Canaries, and other popular locations, shifting models—such as courting digital nomads and promoting low-season stays—offer a path to steadier income. The key is planning with flexible, diversified strategies that address climate risks while capturing evolving traveler preferences, including shorter getaways and longer stays during shoulder seasons.