Spain’s tourism faces another challenge as heat rises
Global warming is already shaping consumer behavior and tourist spending in Spain. The latest CaixaBank Research analysis of debit-card expenditures shows a clear link between higher temperatures and changes in how visitors spend during their holidays. The data indicate that warmer weather coincides with notable shifts in tourism activity, reflecting the present climate reality rather than a distant concern.
Spending patterns vary by location. In Spain’s cooler municipalities, tourism revenue rose more markedly, with increases around 45 percent observed in areas where average temperatures fall below 17 degrees. Regions with higher average temperatures, above 23 degrees, saw comparatively smaller increases in visitor spending, typically in the 25–35 percent range. These findings come from a recent report that connects climate conditions with the intensity of tourist expenditures across different locales.
The study also examines daily spending rhythms, showing that a degree of temperature deviation from the norm can shift consumer activity within a single day. Specifically, each degree above the average tends to reduce spending between 12:00 and 17:00 by about 0.27 percent, while it increases spending in the late evening window from 22:00 to 19:00 by a similar margin. The warmer the day, the more pronounced the dwindling in daytime expenditures appears to be.
On days of extreme heat, the overall tourist outlay declines, averaging a decrease of about 0.12 percent per degree. Spending tends to shift toward cooler hours of the day, contributing to a redistribution of activity rather than a uniform rise in visits.
During heat waves, venues across the tourism ecosystem experience varying impacts. Restaurants report a drop of roughly 0.16 percent per degree of temperature increase, while entertainment venues face a steeper decline around 0.34 percent per degree. Supermarkets do not seem to benefit from the cooling shift and show a dip of roughly 0.13 percent. The only sector that appears to profit slightly during heat events is pharmacies, which see about 0.06 percent more revenue for each degree above the historical average, underscoring how health-related consumption rises in hot conditions.
Pharmacies are the only sector analyzed to benefit from heatwaves
In light of these dynamics, the report urges the tourism industry to pursue innovation and adaptation in response to ongoing climate change. Practical strategies include promoting water-based activities during the hottest hours, expanding shade and cooling facilities on beaches, and developing night markets or events to maintain visitor interest. For rural destinations, encouraging early morning or evening nature-based activities and offering more robust tourism options could help preserve demand. A broader shift toward indoor experiences may also help stabilize spending across the year.
Spain’s tourist outlook is shifting with rising temperatures
This topic is not new. Earlier analyses from a European Commission Joint Research Center (JRC) team warned about how climate trends could affect Spain’s tourism demand. Projections show that temperature increases of 3 to 4 degrees Celsius for the year could lead to declines in demand of about 1.6 to 3.1 percent, with the peak of tourist activity shifting away from the hottest months. In a three-degree scenario, a nearly 10 percent drop in summer demand is anticipated, and the four-degree scenario could exceed 15 percent declines in some months.
Research also indicates that Spain may experience a geographic redistribution of visitors, with northern regions attracting more arrivals during the warmer months as traditional southern destinations face more intense heat. This pattern aligns with maps highlighting areas like the Balearic Islands and Murcia as being more vulnerable to heat-related tourism changes. The JRC’s long-run projection suggests a year-long decrease in tourist numbers in several communities, emphasizing the need for diversification and resilience in the sector.
Overall, the evidence points to persistent climate-driven shifts in Spain’s tourism landscape, reinforcing the importance of proactive adaptation and flexible planning across the industry. The discussion continues to evolve as new data emerge and climate scenarios are refined.
Citation: CaixaBank Research, Turismo y Cambio Climático en España, análisis y perspectivas. Attribution: CaixaBank Research.
Further reading and official findings associated with these observations emphasize cautious interpretation and the value of ongoing monitoring to guide policy and business decisions in Spain’s tourism economy.