HE tourism. One of Spain’s largest economic engines will face significant shocks as climate change progresses. A rise in extreme heat will erode welfare in several regions and may lead to a decline in visitor numbers in destinations such as the Balearic Islands, the Region of Murcia, and the Valencian Community. With heatwaves becoming more common, travelers may steer away from these long-established hubs of tourism. In contrast, areas that stay cooler for longer, like Galicia and Asturias, are positioned to attract more visitors and gain from the downturn experienced elsewhere.
Scientists from the Joint Research Centre of the European Union conducted this analysis. Their report, The regional impact of climate change on tourist demand in Europe, explores how tourism flows might shift across destinations as the level of warming changes.
Climate disaster ‘winners’
The study shows that Spain will witness both winners and losers as climate change unfolds. The regions benefiting most from higher overnight stays are Cantabria, Asturias, and Galicia, where demand could rise by up to 10 percent, 7.2 percent, and 4.2 percent respectively, with Galicia leading the way. These shifts reflect how a warming world can reconfigure tourism patterns across the country.
Galicia, Asturias, and Cantabria appear as the notable beneficiaries amid a broader pattern of decline elsewhere in Spain. The analysis tracks changes under four warming scenarios, ranging from a 1.5 degree increase to as much as 4 degrees above pre-industrial levels. In Galicia, the forecasted increase in tourism demand ranges from 0.5 percent to 3.2 percent across these scenarios, aligning with observed losses in other regions as temperatures rise.
The four scenarios also project a general reduction in overnight stays in eight other Spanish autonomous communities under all warming levels examined. The Balearic Islands particularly stand out as vulnerable, with a potential drop of about 8.16 percent in overnight stays if temperatures rise by 4 degrees compared with pre-industrial levels. The target of keeping warming below 2 degrees, as per global accords, is not met in this scenario, amplifying pressure on some popular destinations.
Murcia could see a decline around 6.8 percent, while the Valencian Community might see a decrease near 3.2 percent. The analysis relies on 2019 tourism data, which remains broadly representative after years of pandemic disruption. Beyond the Balearics, Murcia, and Valencia, other affected areas include Extremadura and several major regions such as Andalusia, the Community of Madrid, Castilla-La Mancha, and Catalonia. At the southern European level, Spain, along with Cyprus, Greece, and Portugal, is projected to lose a substantial share of visitors.
Previously south; now north
Across industry voices, there is a growing notice that many travelers who once favored the southern coast now prefer Galicia during hot months. A tourism cluster head described this shift as an ongoing trend rather than a one-off event, noting that word-of-mouth has helped spread the message about cooler summer options in the northwest. The idea that heat-driven relocation is becoming normalized reflects a broader rethinking of seasonal travel behavior.
Recent assessments, such as forecasts from the national climate office, project that eastern Spain will experience desert and semi-arid conditions later in the century, while the Mediterranean climate expands northward along the Cantabrian coast. This means regions like Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria, and Vizcaya could adopt more Mediterranean characteristics, altering their appeal to visitors and shaping the summer calendar for years to come.
In North Galicia, forecasters note the emergence of new patterns for summer travel. A well-known university researcher explains that insurers in North American markets already offer products guaranteeing vacation funds regardless of weather variability, indicating a growing demand for climate-informed travel planning. From a meteorological services perspective, this signals a burgeoning line of business that connects climate data with tourism services.
ECMWF projections show that a 1.5°C rise in temperatures could occur within the next decade, even as global targets aim to limit warming by the end of the century. Currently, the planet has already warmed about 1.2°C since pre-industrial times. Parts of Europe, especially the Mediterranean, have already surpassed a 2°C increase, making this region a focal point for climate-driven tourism dynamics. This context helps explain why northern districts are gaining traction as summer destinations.
References for these projections are drawn from JRC technical materials and related European climate assessments from the Joint Research Centre. Such sources provide a framework for understanding how climate change reshapes travel behavior and regional tourism economies across Europe.
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Notes on the regional outlook and climate signals underscore that adaptation in tourism will rely on informed destination planning, improved seasonal forecasting, and flexible marketing to address shifting demand. The conversation around climate-resilient tourism is not merely about weather; it is about aligning infrastructure, services, and experiences with evolving traveler preferences and environmental realities.