Spain’s tourism sector, a major driver of the economy, faces notable disruption from rising temperatures. Extreme heat is diminishing welfare in several regions, threatening the appeal of popular destinations such as the Balearic Islands, the Region of Murcia, and the Valencian Community. As heatwaves become more common, some holiday hotspots may see visitor numbers decline while other regions with milder climates attract travelers instead. Galicia and Asturias are highlighted as places that could gain from these shifts in tourism demand.
These conclusions come from an analysis by researchers at the European Union’s Joint Research Center (JRC). In their report titled “The regional impact of climate change on tourist demand in Europe,” the team outlines how tourist visits to various Spanish regions could evolve under different warming scenarios.
Climate-change beneficiaries and losers
The study projects a mixed outcome for Spain, with some areas gaining overnight stays while others face declines. Cantabria, Asturias, and Galicia are identified as the largest beneficiaries, with projected increases in tourist demand of up to 7.2%, 4.2%, and 3.2% respectively under certain warming scenarios. These regions are expected to capture more visitors as the climate evolves.
Visual representations accompanying the report show Galicia and Asturias as regions likely to see rising interest from travelers, while the Balearic Islands, Murcia, and the Valencian Community are anticipated to experience declines in overnight stays under several warming paths. The analysis references four warming scenarios, ranging from 1.5°C to 4°C above pre-industrial levels, and models how demand could shift in response to these temperatures.
The projections suggest a broad reduction for eight other autonomous communities in Spain, regardless of the scenario considered. Among the most prominent destinations today, the Balearic Islands could see visits drop by as much as 8.16% if warming reaches 4°C. Murcia and the Valencian Community are also forecast to experience declines of 6.8% and 3.2%, respectively, while other regions watch similar patterns unfold. The analysis relies on data from 2019 tourism activity to align with trends observed after the pandemic years, identifying Extremadura and the three island regions as particularly affected, along with Andalusia, Madrid, Castilla-La Mancha, and Catalonia. Across Southern Europe, countries like Spain, Cyprus, Greece, and Portugal are expected to bear the largest losses in visitor numbers.
Additional context from the report highlights how climate dynamics could alter regional appeal. A shift toward Mediterranean-style conditions along the Cantabrian coast might gradually bring new climate characteristics to Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria, and Vizcaya, reshaping long-standing tourist patterns.
One notable implication is a shift in the seasonal balance. Galicia is described as transitioning toward longer, more attractive summers, while the traditional southern heat-soaked vacation model pivots toward northern regions that offer more temperate conditions. This redistribution aligns with broader climate assessments that project the Mediterranean climate expanding northward in certain coastal zones.
Experts emphasize that the European forecast indicates temperatures continue to rise, with temperature increases of 1.5°C to 2°C anticipated within the next decade, underscoring the need for adaptation in the tourism industry. Current measurements show the planet already warming by about 1.2°C since pre-industrial times, with higher increases in Europe and especially along the Mediterranean coast, where post-Arctic warming effects are most pronounced.
Researchers point to the relevance of these trends for regional planning and business strategies in tourism. The evolving climate timelines suggest that destinations can adjust by diversifying offerings, adjusting marketing to new visitor profiles, and strengthening resilience to heat-related demand fluctuations.
The analysis draws on data and scenarios from respected institutions to illuminate potential outcomes. For interested readers, the JRC report provides structured projections across multiple warming trajectories and regional outcomes, illustrating how shifts in climate can reconfigure where travelers choose to spend their holidays.
These insights underscore the importance of ongoing monitoring and adaptive planning for coastal and inland destinations alike, ensuring that communities remain prepared to respond to changing traveler preferences while maintaining sustainable tourism growth.
Note: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and related climate research teams contribute to understanding how temperature trends may unfold, informing policymakers and industry stakeholders about potential future conditions and their implications for travel demand.
Regions highlighted for potential shifts include northern coastal areas moving toward more temperate and Mediterranean-like climates, with significant impacts anticipated for the Balearic Islands, Murcia, and the Valencian Community as warming progresses. Western and central regions may experience different patterns of visitor flows, prompting a broader look at regional tourism portfolios and infrastructure readiness.