Is it possible to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement with the current level of emissions? It will be very difficult, according to a new report added to a line of similar findings. Countries need to begin with stronger efforts right from the start. Spain, for example, saw an increase in emissions in 2021 rather than a reduction.
Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the Paris Agreement’s aspirational goal, would require an annual decarbonization rate of about 15.2 percent. That pace is described as unprecedented by the PwC Foundation, which warns that none of the top 20 economies are moving fast enough.
The Net Zero Economy Index study notes that last year the drop in carbon intensity in the global economy was only 0.5 percent. Spain saw a 4.39 percent rise in emissions intensity in 2021.
The report’s takeaway is clear: current emissions cuts are not enough to protect the climate. It highlights the reality that the G-20 nations are not decarbonizing quickly enough to keep global warming near 1.5 degrees by mid-century.
2021: the year with the weakest decarbonization in a decade
The Net Zero Economy Index 2022 examines progress toward the Paris goals, set in Glasgow at COP26 in 2021. Globally, a 15.2 percent annual reduction in emissions intensity is needed, yet 2021 showed only a 0.5 percent improvement—the lowest in ten years.
In 2021, nine of the twenty largest economies, which together account for about 80 percent of energy-related emissions, increased their carbon intensity. China cut its carbon intensity by 2.8 percent, while the United States recorded a 0.1 percent rise. India lowered intensity by 2.9 percent; Japan by 0.6 percent; Germany by 1.7 percent; and France by 1.4 percent.
Spain, despite a 4.39 percent rise in emissions intensity from the previous year, remains roughly at the EU average and below the world average. Spain’s emissions intensity sits around 132 tCO2 per million dollars of GDP, versus 266 tCO2 per million dollars of GDP worldwide.
A notable note from the commentary is that China has achieved substantial emissions reductions in recent years. Pablo Bascones, a sustainability and climate partner at PwC, notes that energy use rebounded after the 2020 activity drop from the pandemic, and a higher share of fuel consumption relative to total primary energy contributed to a worsening of emissions intensity in Spain compared to fiscal 2020.
The results from 2021 serve as a reminder that achieving a net zero economy requires urgent action. Countries, along with public and private organizations, must accelerate the current trend of reducing absolute emissions. If action stalls, the costs of adapting to climate change will rise.
Despite these data, corporations continue driving the climate agenda. Regulatory shifts, changes in consumer behavior, and growing investor recognition of the low‑carbon transition are pushing momentum forward. Yet the current geopolitical climate, marked by higher energy prices and supply risks, supports a continued reliance on fossil fuels in the near term.
For a full assessment, the Net Zero Economy Index 2022 report provides further context and analysis. [PwC Net Zero Economy Index 2022] The findings emphasize the need for stronger leadership, bold investment, and faster action across sectors to bend the emissions curve in North America and beyond.
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