Beyond the new pledges and the flood of reports that climate conferences tend to produce, COP27 spotlighted two headlines that can feel contradictory. There is news that is troubling and news that carries a spark of hope. The troubling part is that the planet has roughly nine years to curb emissions before the 1.5ºC threshold becomes a hard line, a target set for 2100 but now appearing harder to reach in the near term. The hopeful note is that the three largest global polluters—China, India, and Europe—are pushing decarbonization forward faster than many expected.
The Global Carbon Project, a panel of over a hundred scientists studying how carbon drives climate change, offers clear guidance on current trends. In simple terms, compared with pre-industrial levels, there is about a 50 percent chance of breaching the 1.5ºC limit within the coming nine years, a horizon tied to 2100 but not guaranteed in the near term, which makes the situation harder to forecast.
Analysts suggest roughly half of the risk of a slower pace of improvement comes from risky choices in practice, and officials are determined to pursue bold and urgent steps to avoid dangerous outcomes.
Emissions increase in 2022
The latest warming data remains grim. Emissions rebounded after the pandemic in 2021, and projections for 2022 point to about a 1 percent rise in CO2 emissions compared with 2021. That may seem modest, but small increases matter when steep declines are expected.
The rise in 2022 is driven by higher oil use, which boosted emissions by around 2.2 percent, and coal use, up about 1 percent, while gas emissions dipped roughly 0.2 percent and cement use rose about 1.6 percent. Experts also highlight the post-pandemic aviation rebound as a major contributor to this global uptick.
global emissions Global Carbon Project
How is there still a nine-year window to 1.5ºC? The Global Carbon Project tracks gigatons of CO2 released each year. The safe reserve is calculated as the amount that can still be emitted before hitting the Paris Agreement limit, with roughly 380 gigatons left to release and about 40.6 gigatons projected for 2022.
Almost impossible task
The report authors doubt that emissions can be reduced enough within such a short span. Reaching 2100 with only 1.5ºC of warming would likely require annual reductions on par with those seen during the peak pandemic year.
A Global Carbon Project member notes that green growth is not guaranteed once Covid is behind us and fossil fuel use continues to rise. Another lead researcher warns that by century’s end the world could be heading toward roughly 2.4ºC of warming, a gap that studies warn could be catastrophic, making the 1.5ºC target seem increasingly unlikely without bold, decisive action.
If current emissions persist, the planet could cross the 2ºC mark in coming years. Experts warn that extreme weather events already hint at the consequences of a warmer world, with forecasts predicting more intense conditions as heat rises.
Some hopes
Yet there are bright spots. Emissions growth has slowed over the past decade, from about 3 percent annually in the early 2000s to roughly 0.5 percent in the last ten years. And China, India, and Europe show progress toward decarbonization targets that exceed initial expectations in several cases, thanks to faster deployment of clean energy and policy shifts.
A separate report from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit highlights China’s surge in clean energy, contributing to a forecast of a near-term decline in emissions. In India, renewable energy adoption is expanding rapidly, even as coal remains a significant share of the mix.
The European Union is also expected to reduce emissions in 2022, helped by reduced natural gas use amid geopolitical tensions. In the United States, emissions are projected to rise modestly due to gas stepping in for coal, yet the country remains a major investor in solar and wind power and is on track to generate a large portion of energy from renewables by 2030.
An Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit note points out that wind and solar power have become dramatically cheaper than fossil fuels, encouraging continued public and private investment in clean energy.
The window of time is shrinking
Despite hopeful signs, experts stress that the time to act is narrowing. Ambitious pledges must be supported by immediate and far-reaching measures. The International Energy Agency has suggested fossil fuel use may peak by 2030 and then decline as renewables take over, but the transition will be gradual and emissions will persist for years.
The overall view remains cautious, with more uncertainty than clarity about the medium-term path for humanity. The Global Carbon Project findings present a clear call for stronger action and sustained decarbonization across all sectors. See the Global Carbon Project report for details and the ECIU report for perspectives on major emitters and progress in clean energy.
The environmental department continues to study and report on climate trends and policy impacts, while researchers urge rapid, tangible steps to bend the curve toward a safer climate future.