Beyond the fresh pledges and the flood of reports typical of climate summits, COP27 left two headlines that seem to pull in opposite directions. There is both bad and good news. The bad news: the planet has roughly nine years to accelerate emission cuts fast enough to avoid surpassing a 1.5ºC rise, a threshold the 2100 horizon estimates would otherwise threaten. The good news: three of the world’s largest emitters—China, India, and Europe—are advancing toward decarbonisation at a pace that outstrips early expectations.
The Global Carbon Project, a respected panel of more than 100 scientists studying carbon’s impact on the climate, released a briefing at the summit. It sketches a stark reality: there is a 50% probability of crossing the 1.5ºC limit within nine years relative to pre-industrial levels. The forecast targets 2100, but the near term looks far tougher than a decade-long projection.
Experts insist on rapid, urgent steps to keep the trajectory from hitting this critical mark. They note that half the chance of an overshoot is tied to risky, near-Russian-roulette-style bets with the planet’s carbon budget.
Current warming data offers little comfort. After emissions rebounded in 2021 from pandemic lows, expectations for 2022 pointed to further increases in CO2. Projections by the Global Carbon Project suggest a new expansion in 2022 emissions from concrete production, nudging overall CO2 higher by about 1% from 2021. While a small percentage, the surprise climb matters because the window for meaningful reductions is shrinking, and any uptick is a setback.
The drivers behind the 2022 rise include a surge in oil use, which pushed emissions up by around 2.2%, and coal, up about 1%. Emissions from gas fell slightly, by 0.2%, and cement use dropped by 1.6%. Aviation’s recovery after the pandemic is identified by many as a major contributor to the annual increase, underscoring how quickly changes in demand can affect the carbon tally.
How is the nine-year figure calculated? The Global Carbon Project tracks annual gigatons of CO2 released into the atmosphere. With about 380 gigatons remaining in the budget to stay within 1.5ºC, and 40.6 gigatons emitted in 2022 alone, the clock is ticking toward a critical reserve that could be exhausted sooner than hoped. The analysis implies the Paris Agreement’s targets are being approached, not comfortably met, in the near term.
The authors emphasize that achieving the needed reductions within nine years is unlikely if current trends persist. To land at 2100 with a 1.5ºC rise, emissions would have to fall at rates comparable to those seen during the height of the Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020 each year for the rest of the century.
Addressing the crowd, Philippe Ciais, a member of Global Carbon Project, cautioned that even with positive signals, green growth is not yet visible once Covid restrictions end. The tempo of emissions remains under pressure from continued fossil fuel use.
Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project and a lead figure at the CSIRO Climate Science Centre in Canberra, offered a sobering forecast. He warned that if current patterns persist, the world could approach roughly 2.4ºC of warming by century’s end. A gap between 1.5ºC and 2.4ºC would be stark, given the breadth of projected impacts documented by climate research. And the trend toward higher temperatures already aligns with forecasts of worsening extreme weather—events that may outpace previous expectations.
Still, there is a flicker of optimistic news. Emissions growth has slowed, even as total emissions have not yet stabilized. From a 3% annual rise in the 2000s, the recent decade shows a much more modest increase around 0.5%. The much-discussed decarbonisation targets of China, India, and Europe appear to be moving forward ahead of original timelines, providing a glimmer of hope against the otherwise grim forecast.
Further context comes from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), which highlights China’s strong push for clean energy. Emissions for 2022 are projected to drop slightly, roughly 0.9%, a signal aided by economic slowdown and aggressive reforestation in the region. India also shows a surge in renewable capacity, even though coal still plays a major role; reductions in net emissions are anticipated within the same decade as renewables scale up. The European Union posts a similar trend, with an expected 0.8% decline in 2022 largely due to a roughly 10% reduction in gas consumption tied to the Ukraine conflict.
The United States presents a different path, with a 1.5% higher emission rate forecast for 2022, driven by gas use that substitutes for coal. Yet the United States remains a top investor in solar and wind power, aiming for a widespread shift toward renewables—targeting 85% of energy from renewable sources by 2030. The ECIU notes that rapid price reductions have made wind and solar far more affordable than fossil fuels, encouraging policymakers and investors to accelerate a green transition.
Despite these hopeful signals, experts stress that the window is narrowing. It will require immediate, concrete, and far-reaching measures rather than future commitments. The International Energy Agency has projected that fossil fuel use could peak around 2030 and then gradually decline as renewables take more market share. Yet the transition will be gradual, with some emissions persisting for years to come.
Taken together, the latest analyses paint a darker, more mixed picture for the medium term. The path to a stable climate future depends on turning ambitious statements into practical, near-term action that bends the emissions curve before it is too late.