Spain faces a substantial annual bill to reach its climate goals, with an investment need of 85 billion euros each year directed at green technologies. The drive toward decarbonization is seen as unavoidable due to climate change, and this financial commitment is linked to the aim of achieving net zero emissions by 2045 and negative emissions by 2050. The projected annual contribution would represent about 6.2 percent of GDP on average through 2050 and is expected to support the creation of around 1.1 million jobs, according to a McKinsey analysis.
The report Net-zero Spain: Europe’s decarbonisation hub outlines an alternate scenario where Spain could cut greenhouse gas emissions to zero within the next three decades, positioning the country among the world leaders in a decarbonized economy. It identifies transport and industry as responsible for roughly 65 percent of Spain extractable emissions and emphasizes that electrification, green hydrogen, and biofuels will be the three pillars driving the industrial energy transition.
Historically Spain achieved a 32 percent reduction in emissions from 2007 to 2019, predominantly due to growth in renewable electricity generation. This progress occurred despite policy constraints during the Mariano Rajoy administration. The McKinsey findings suggest a turning point could be within reach: net zero emissions by 2045 and negative emissions by 2050, supported by a sustained annual investment of 85,000 million euros in green technologies. The plan envisions accumulated capital investment around 2.5 trillion euros, equating to roughly 6.2 percent of average annual GDP through 2050, under a more conservative scenario based on current policies.
On a broader EU level, emissions fell by 28 percent between 1990 and 2019, while Spain saw an approximate 9 percent rise over the same period, driven mainly by economic growth. Yet solar and wind resources in Spain are viewed as key opportunity factors alongside potential for green hydrogen development. The report highlights that strong public-sector commitment and EU funding, amounting to more than 70 billion euros, will be essential to achieving these targets.
Impact on agriculture
Climate change poses a real threat. In a scenario with about two degrees Celsius higher temperatures than preindustrial levels, southern Spain could experience about 45 days annually with peak temperatures exceeding 37 degrees Celsius. This shift would affect public health and certain economic activities, notably reducing four strategic crops for Spain grapes, olives, tomatoes, and wheat.
Impact on tourism
The tourism sector may confront challenges in preserving its current appeal during hotter periods. Adapting visitor infrastructure to heat waves and extending operating hours into unusual times are among the potential adaptations being considered to maintain activity and comfort for travelers.
Public transport
McKinsey research indicates that transportation accounts for nearly a third of emissions. However, with widespread adoption of electric vehicles and biofuels, emissions could drop by about 50 percent by 2030 and could reach net zero by 2050. The report suggests that roughly two-thirds of the total investment should be directed to this sector over the coming decades.
Industry
Industry requires special attention given its share of emissions and the potential for strong reductions by 2050. Despite the heat demands in some production processes, an 85 percent reduction is envisioned. A deep reindustrialization is expected in sectors such as steel, cement, chemical, and petrochemical industries, where hydrogen, biofuels, and even carbon capture could play pivotal roles. The electricity sector is projected to receive between 15 and 20 percent of the investment needed to realize a full greenhouse gas reduction by 2050, while the remaining allocation is anticipated to go toward other energy uses. Residential and commercial buildings are also expected to reach significant emission reductions as the horizon approaches.