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The country could export two million tons of green hydrogen per year from 2030, representing 20% of expected regional production.
Every summer, thousands of tourists from northern Europe head to Spain’s airports to sunbathe on its beaches. The image of sun and sea has defined decades, yet today it also hints at a new economic horizon. With nearly 300 sunny days a year, Spain has markedly increased its photovoltaic solar power in recent seasons. Paired with a robust wind sector, this abundance of clean energy positions Spain as an attractive hub for affordable green hydrogen production. Projections suggest that after 2030 the country could reach an annual output of 21,000 million cubic meters, or about 2 million tons of hydrogen, accounting for about one fifth of EU expectations and particularly serving northern European markets.
Bruno Esgalhado, a partner at McKinsey & Company, notes that Spain has strong potential to emerge as Europe’s hydrogen hub alongside Portugal. The limited grid capacity in neighboring countries, however, adds a strategic edge for Spain. The sunniest parts of the Iberian Peninsula register around 2,500 hours of sunshine yearly, a factor that has helped photovoltaic production triple in recent years. Red Eléctrica data show that wind energy now supplies more than half of Spain’s electricity, amplifying the case for green hydrogen.
The trend toward lower costs for green hydrogen is anchored in its renewable energy backbone. Industry voices point out that Iberia offers the lowest energy costs in Europe, enabling green hydrogen to be priced more competitively for buyers in France or Germany. Javier Brey, president of the Spanish Hydrogen Association, explains that production costs could fall to roughly 1 to 2 euros per kilogram by 2030, well below today’s levels of around 5.5 to 6.5 euros per kilogram in many places. International agencies also project Spain as a leading low-cost hydrogen producer, with IRENA forecasting it will rank among the cheapest globally and the most affordable in Europe.
Hydrogen on land and sea
The European Commission has aimed to locally produce and consume 10 million tons of green hydrogen annually by mid-2030 as part of decarbonization and energy independence efforts. Projections call for 600 MW of electrolysis capacity by 2024 and 4 GW of green hydrogen for national use by 2030. If these goals hold, sector analysts suggest a future well beyond 2030 could push exports higher, potentially doubling by 2040 and 2050. Northern European partners such as the Netherlands, Germany, the United Kingdom, and parts of northern France show strong interest because they fear disruption to their industries. They are pursuing renewable energy links to secure reliable, low-emission supply chains.
The push to export green hydrogen is already reflected in major cross-border projects. The H2Med corridor links Portugal, Spain, France and Germany with an estimated investment of 2.5 billion euros. BP is among the Valencia Community Hydrogen Cluster participants planning to export hydrogen via this route, underscoring Spain’s ambition to be both energy independent and a regional exporter. A second corridor connects Celorico da Beira in Portugal with Zamora, featuring large internal hydro lines designed to connect hydrogen production sites with industrial hubs and storage facilities. The broader plan envisions connections weaving through Huelva, Puertollano, Zamora and Gijón on one side and Gijón, Barcelona, and Cartagena on the other, with substantial investment and strategic storage locations planned in Cantabria and the Basque Country.
On the maritime front, the HE runner initiative led by Cepsa and the port of Rotterdam targets exporting roughly 4.6 million tons of green hydrogen from the Algeciras region by 2030. The San Roque Energy Park near the Bay of Algeciras will be the production site, with Rotterdam’s port authority serving as a primary hub for northern Europe’s energy entry. This approach aligns with the broader goal of making Spain a central transit and export node for hydrogen moving into northern Europe.
Beyond export roles, Spain is becoming a major hub for concentrating green hydrogen across regions. Industry voices highlight that other geographies such as Latin America and the Mediterranean coast from Morocco to Egypt may also seek European markets through Iberian gateways. The Iberian Peninsula is viewed as a natural entry point for hydrogen imports into Europe, given its strategic location and established energy corridors.
more investment
The push to raise green hydrogen output is expected to come from sectors that struggle with electrification, including heavy industry and transport. Industries that currently rely on fossil-derived hydrogen are transitioning toward clean energy. Ceramics, chemical production, and heavy mobility stand to benefit most as costs fall and regulatory pressure increases. Industry observers anticipate that, as prices stabilize, Spain could become one of the largest producers and exporters of green hydrogen.
Early-stage investments focus on ensuring adequate supply to meet future demand. McKinsey & Company calculations suggest that meeting net-zero goals will require substantial annual investment over the coming decades. Government initiatives have begun, with initial funding to support green hydrogen projects and additional funds anticipated to be announced in the near term. The Renewal, Transformation and Resilience Plan will channel resources toward renewable energy, hydrogen, and storage projects, reinforcing Spain’s role in the broader European energy transition.