The NATO leaders’ meeting held on July 11 and 12 in Vilnius, Lithuania, was framed as a turning point for Ukraine’s alliance prospects and for transatlantic security planning. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attended the summit, with confirmation awaited on whether he would join in person or participate by video link. As explained by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the gathering aimed to bring Ukraine closer to the alliance through the creation of a formal NATO-Ukraine framework, a multi-year aid program, and the political pledge that Ukraine will become a member of the Atlantic Alliance.
“At the summit, we will strengthen Ukraine and lay out a clear path for its future,” Stoltenberg said. “First, we will agree on a multi-year aid package to ensure full interoperability between the Ukrainian armed forces and NATO. Second, we will deepen our political ties through the establishment of the NATO-Ukraine Council. Third, there is a shared hope among allied leaders that Ukraine will join NATO, a commitment that reinforces Ukraine’s trajectory toward membership.” The leaders noted that Sweden, alongside other partners, would be part of a newly formed partnership framework once Ukraine joins the club.
What is the purpose of this new forum? “If Ukraine or its allies feel threatened and require urgent consultations, the council can trigger crisis discussions among its members,” Stoltenberg explained. The mechanism also allows the formation of subcommittees to address specific tasks like interoperability. “The goal is to create a structure where actions can be taken collectively, decisions made together, and consultations held on matters that affect security,” he added, emphasizing that this framework will bring Ukraine closer to NATO.
Accession of Ukraine
While the allies refine the final declaration, Stoltenberg expressed optimism about renewing commitments and signaling Ukraine’s path toward membership. He recalled that allies have previously agreed on many core principles governing accession and reaffirmed that NATO’s doors remain open. “Ukraine will become a member, and the timing will be determined through dialogue between NATO members and Ukraine,” he stated.
Beyond political commitments, Stoltenberg highlighted examples of support, including sustained ammunition shipments to Ukraine. He declined to comment on Russia’s supply details, noting that individual allied governments decide what military aid to provide, not the alliance as a whole. He stressed that Russia has used such weapons in a brutal war, while Ukraine uses them to defend its sovereignty.
Regional plans and increased spending
The summit was expected to introduce significant steps to bolster deterrence and defense strategies, including three new regional defense plans. These plans focus on northern, Atlantic, and European Arctic regions; the Baltic area and central Europe; and the southern flank covering the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. The alliance also prepared to adjust command structures to maintain a robust force of about 300,000 personnel on high readiness.
An agreed Defense Production Action Plan was anticipated to boost demand, expand capacity, and improve interoperability. Sources noted that Spain had previously blocked the plan but appeared satisfied with the latest language. The commitment to maintain defense spending at least at 2% of GDP remained central, though the coalition discussed the possibility of rising beyond that baseline. Stoltenberg cited provisional figures indicating that allied nations would allocate 8.3% of their GDP to defense this year, marking the largest rise in decades and the ninth consecutive year of increases. Since 2014, European allies and Canada have invested over $450 billion in defense as a result of this pledge. He noted that 11 allies would meet or exceed the 2% target this year, including Poland, the United States, Greece, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Hungary, Latvia, the United Kingdom, and Slovakia.
Spain’s defense spending, at 1.26%, trailed behind many allies, though Madrid celebrated the summit’s goal of reaching the 2% target by 2029. The country also emphasized investments in military capabilities and research and development, contributing to operations in regions such as Iraq, Türkiye, Latvia, and Estonia. Stoltenberg highlighted that Spain allocates a larger share to capability development than the 20% target set at the 2014 Wales summit.
The Vilnius meeting also offered a chance for allied leaders to engage with partners outside the core alliance. Stoltenberg anticipated meetings with Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea, potentially paving the way for broader cooperation. He suggested that talks with Sweden and Turkey would progress, while the Turkish parliament planned a summer recess and a vote later in October that would decide on Sweden’s accession. Diplomatic sources noted that Hungary indicated it might approve Sweden’s accession ahead of any final Turkish decision.