If Sweden’s accession to NATO is approved by Turkey and Hungary, along with their parliaments, the Alliance will stand as a united and formidable force with a robust defense industry. Sweden already has notable capabilities through Saab, which builds advanced platforms like the Gripen fighter and the Gotland-class submarines. This high-tech edge enhances intelligence, surveillance, and deterrence across the alliance’s northern flank and helps deter potential threats from the Baltic Sea region.
In global rankings, Sweden sits around 37th among 145 armed forces evaluated by Global Firepower, ahead of several peers. With a population just over ten million, it maintains a professional army of roughly 25,000 personnel, including a significant share of women in uniform.
“We believe we will contribute to Allied defense. While our armed forces are not as large as Finland’s, we boast leading technologies and strength in defense industries,” stated Teppo Tauriainen, Swedish ambassador to Spain, in an interview with El Periódico de España.
Among its military capabilities, Sweden fields more than 70 fighter squadrons, largely composed of American F-35s or domestically produced Saab Gripen jets. The Gripen, a fourth-generation fighter, integrates electronic warfare and AI-assisted targeting to aid pilot decision-making and precision. The aircraft, about 15 meters tall, can be flown solo or by a two-person crew, enabling both air combat and reconnaissance missions.
The Royal Swedish Navy operates around 400 ships and five submarines today with plans to expand to a dozen submarines by 2040. At the Kockums shipyards, Saab is developing a series of self-contained air-propelled Gotland submarines designed for extended submersion, a capability previously associated primarily with nuclear platforms. These submarines are specifically engineered to endure the icy Baltic waters, distinct from the warmer Mediterranean environment.
The army includes 121 tanks, predominantly Leopard 2A models from Germany. Sweden’s annual defense spend surpasses 8.3 billion euros, about 1.4% of GDP, with a target of reaching 2% by 2028, a goal endorsed at the 2014 Wales Summit. Since the start of the Ukraine conflict, the defense budget has risen by roughly 20%.
Multiplier effect with Scandinavians
“More than Sweden’s individual contribution, the expansion of cooperation with Scandinavian neighbors—Finland, Denmark, Norway, and Iceland—amplifies the alliance’s deterrence in the region,” explained Charlie Salonius, analyst at the Finnish Institute of International Relations, during the Vilnius alliance summit. Finland joined NATO recently, and the region’s states have agreed to jointly patrol Baltic skies, creating a unified air fleet that strengthens Europe’s air power. With F-35s and Gripens in use, they will harmonize training, procurement, and deployment planning, reinforcing the alliance’s lead in northern Europe.
Undoubtedly, Sweden has more work ahead. “It will take time to scale up operations beyond regional bases. Military operations outside familiar theaters require sustained effort,” noted the analyst. Yet cooperation with Finland’s armed forces has mitigated some of the volume gaps, signaling a promising trajectory for expanded defense collaboration.
Sweden’s involvement, a political message
Top leaders meet this week in Vilnius, Lithuania, for the Atlantic alliance’s annual summit. The alliance’s posture centers on deterrence and area defense plans, outlining expenditures and sustaining battalions on the eastern flank along Russia’s frontier.
Within this framework, the political signal to Moscow is clear: Sweden’s potential entry would create a broader NATO front along the Baltic. If Sweden becomes the 32nd member, naval and airspace control over the Baltic would extend to Alliance forces, affecting strategic balance near Saint Petersburg. As Ambassador Tauriainen put it, the map would reveal a significant gap without Sweden in NATO’s northern perimeter.
Sweden has moved away from decades of neutrality toward a position aligned with NATO capabilities. Only two minority parties, the Greens and the Left Party, oppose membership, together representing roughly 10% of voters. The shift has accelerated since Russia’s 2014 Crimea annexation and the ensuing conflict in eastern Ukraine. A parliamentary review in May last year led the Social Democratic Party to endorse NATO entry, marking a historic policy pivot. “What happened over the past year changed everything for us,” observed Sweden’s mission head in Spain.
Ultimately, Turkey’s consent was pivotal. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan initially blocked Finland and Sweden at the Madrid summit last year, citing concerns about Turkish militants and a separate arms embargo. The dynamics shifted again this Monday when NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that Erdogan had lifted the veto following a meeting with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, describing the moment as historic.
Sweden’s gradual transition from non-alignment to NATO integration underscores a broader strategic shift in the region. The question now is how quickly the defense infrastructure and interoperability with Nordic partners can mature, ensuring a seamless integration into the alliance’s command structure and operational planning. The political imperative is matched by practical steps—building readiness, coordinating training, and aligning procurement—and by the clear goal of contributing to collective security from the Baltic to the North Sea.