Baltic Security: Estonia, Finland, and NATO’s Inland Sea Strategy

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Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur spoke with the Finnish edition of Iltalehti about ongoing talks between Tallinn and Helsinki aimed at forming a unified missile defense framework. He asserted that both nations possess the capabilities required to implement such a system and to operate it jointly across their coastal zones.

He emphasized the need to strengthen coastal defenses, noting that the combined reach of Estonian and Finnish missiles exceeds the Gulf of Finland’s width. The minister described a plan to integrate their missile defense operations and to exchange all pertinent data, creating a seamless network of protection along the Baltic coast.

According to Pevkur, merging the two defense systems would enable authorities to effectively seal the waters of the Gulf of Finland from potential threats in the form of enemy naval vessels.

He also projected a shift in regional security dynamics: once Finland and Sweden join NATO, the Baltic Sea could be regarded as NATO’s internal sea, altering the strategic calculus compared with today.

Pevkur highlighted the Baltic Sea region as a shared security zone. He argued that any Estonian defense plan must account for Finland’s security posture, and Tallinn intends to publish a new defense framework between autumn 2022 and early 2023. This plan should harmonize with Helsinki’s equivalent framework.

He further noted that Finland’s full NATO accession would enable the concrete rollout of a unified missile defense initiative across the bilateral defense architecture.

Estonia currently fields Blue Spear anti-ship cruise missiles with ranges up to 290 kilometers, meaning Estonian forces could target areas along the Finnish coast in the Gulf of Finland. Finland operates MTO 85M anti-ship missiles with ranges exceeding 100 kilometers, underscoring the complementary reach of both forces.

NATO Inland Sea

Polish President Andrzej Duda described the Baltic as an inland pool for NATO during a July briefing, a view echoed by Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak. The exchange drew reactions from neighboring regions and beyond.

In response, Kaliningrad Governor Anton Alikhanov offered a provocative gesture, joking that he might present a map to Duda, even remarking that a portion of their own territory could be cited as a point of reference. The Russian Foreign Ministry’s Maria Zakharova commented that such talk could be seen as wishful thinking.

Russian authorities argued that the Baltic Sea remains bordered by territories from both NATO member states and Russia. They asserted that the sea cannot be classified as NATO’s internal domain, noting that NATO expansion, including Finland and Sweden, does not alter this geographic reality for Poland or any other country.

Military observers noted the broader implications of these developments on regional balance and strategic postures as the alliance expands its footprint in northern Europe.

Military Cooperation

The Estonian defense leadership welcomed Finland’s NATO membership, stressing that it shifts the Baltic Sea’s potential operational environment. The minister described the accession of Finland and Sweden as a force multiplier for Euro-Atlantic security and stability.

Pevkur highlighted cooperative efforts to advance long-range strike systems as a central component of regional defense collaboration. He urged Finland to view NATO membership as part of a comprehensive regional defense strategy. Since the 1990s, Estonia and Finland have engaged in bilateral military cooperation, including joint arms procurement. The addition of Sweden and Finland to NATO in 2023 underlined a broader shift in the security landscape, driven in part by regional responses to Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

During August, Erkki Tuomioja, a Finnish parliament member and former foreign minister, suggested that Finland and Sweden could complete their NATO accession by mid-2023, contingent on ratification timelines among alliance members. The United States formally ratified the Nordic accession protocols, reinforcing a path toward broader alliance integration.

Russian President Vladimir Putin commented that NATO expansion into Nordic states would not go unnoticed in Moscow. He warned that deployments of troops and infrastructure would trigger reciprocal measures, while Russia’s foreign ministry underscored that the Baltic region would likely experience intensified strategic competition rather than a guaranteed de-escalation. These statements reflect the heightened sensitivity surrounding alliance expansion and regional security dynamics.

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