The race for the U.S. presidency is entering its final stretch as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump prepare for a tense clash on the campaign trail. After President Biden withdrew following a chaotic first debate with Trump, the Democratic side shifted from alarm to hopeful energy in a matter of weeks, with Vice President Harris stepping up to rally her supporters and aim to topple the former president once again at the polls. Yet the mogul has managed to pull ahead in the closing sprint. This piece tracks how the polls are evolving in the Harris–Trump contest.
The appeal of Harris has continued to slip, widening the gap between unfavorable and favorable opinions. The unfavorable edge has grown from 1.2 points to 1.6 points in the most recent days. Just over a month ago, Harris’s backers held a small advantage; by July 20, on the eve of Biden’s withdrawal, unfavorable views had surpassed favorable by 16 points, reflecting a profile that had remained relatively low in visibility during much of her tenure as vice president.
By contrast, Trump’s standing has fluctuated more since the field shifted, though opponents consistently outnumber supporters. At present, detractors lead by about 5.3 points, a margin that has narrowed by roughly half a point in recent days. Analysts from several American polling outlets note that the electorate remains deeply polarized between the two camps, making large-scale vote switching unlikely. Still, as Election Day approaches, small shifts in the electorate could tilt support toward Trump, especially in key states that determine the map.
In line with this polarized landscape, polls show a striking level of parity in the Harris–Trump matchup, with the lead trading hands in the final stretch of campaigning. The Economist’s national average assigns Harris a 1.2-point edge, 48.9% to 47.7%. The gap narrowed by three tenths over the recent weekend as Trump closed the distance and Harris found it harder to regain momentum after the Biden-era surge had faded.
Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s national average puts Harris ahead by about 1.1 points, 48% to 46.9%. That edge has moved slightly in recent days, driven by a modest uptick for Harris and a stall for Trump. The tight race underscores how every tenth of a point matters in a contest that hinges on a handful of states rather than a clear national mandate.
Beyond the raw percentages, Americans vote through an indirect electoral system: the winner in each state takes all of that state’s electoral votes, and the overall result depends on a cluster of swing states. This election highlights seven pivotal states: Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The final outcome will hinge on how these states tilt on Election Day, not just on national totals.
Differences are razor-thin in these seven swing states, but Trump has gained ground in recent days. According to The Economist’s polling average, Harris leads only in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump leads in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Relative to two weeks earlier, Republicans had moved into the lead in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, reshaping expectations as the race nears.
A separate measure from FiveThirtyEight also places Harris ahead only in Michigan (48% vs. 47%) and Wisconsin (48.0% vs. 47.3%), while Trump leads in Arizona (49% vs. 46.6%), North Carolina (48.4% vs. 47.3%), Georgia (48.4% vs. 47.2%), Nevada (47.7% vs. 47.4%), and Pennsylvania (47.8% vs. 47.8%). In the latest weeks, the Republican edge has widened in several states, highlighting the contest’s volatility across the map.