Finland and the European Union share the longest border with Russia, and this Sunday the nation will begin the search for a new president whose priority will be national defense. Foreign policy has long been a constitutional duty of Finland’s president, given the country’s strategic position and history. Following the occupation of Ukraine and the heightened tensions with Moscow, Helsinki has reassessed its stance toward Russia, opting for a pragmatic mix of caution and collaboration where possible. The enduring border between the two neighbors spans about 1,340 kilometers and remains a central issue in national security discussions.
It has been a year of upheaval for Finns. In the spring, elections brought a change in government, with the Social Democrats yielding power to a conservative coalition led by Petteri Orpo, which formed a governing alliance with the far-right True Finns. This shift accompanied a series of swift and sometimes turbulent events, including staff resignations connected to controversial remarks by a government minister.
Conservative Sauli Niinistö will step down as president after Sunday’s elections. Nine candidates from Finland’s prominent political families are vying for the office. The first round will unfold this Sunday, with a possible runoff on February 11. Niinistö’s presidency left a clear mark on Finland’s foreign policy and defense posture, especially in its approach to relations with Russia, a neighbor whose actions in 1939 and later in the Cold War era influenced decades of military neutrality. Finland has rebuilt its security framework in response to recent developments and Sweden’s path to joining NATO has featured prominently in this realignment.
Niinistö played a decisive role in guiding Finland through the integration process with NATO, helping to solidify a new era of alliance membership. His tenure also reflected a shift in regional security dynamics, marking a transition away from strict nonalignment toward deeper cooperation with Western security structures. The national memory of past conflicts with Russia continues to shape contemporary policy and public sentiment, influencing how the country balances neutrality with deterrence and alliance commitments. A notable part of the historical record includes public discussions about defense readiness and strategic partnerships in northern Europe.
US troops and the nuclear issue
The incoming president will decide how many U.S. troops to host on Finnish soil and whether participation in NATO could involve hosting nuclear weapons. The Finnish presidency is both a political and military role, while Finland has long invested heavily in defense well before its NATO accession. The country maintains a sizable force structure and reserves, and it has recently expanded its air capability with American F-35 aircraft. Finland stands as a regional leader in counterterrorism and cyber defense, and it maintains one of the continent’s most extensive civil defense infrastructures, including numerous shelter sites in the capital region and surrounding areas that reflect decades of preparedness planning.
Two seasoned former ministers and a bold political actor
Polls indicate that two experienced politicians are likely to advance to the runoff: Pekka Haavisto, who previously served as Foreign Minister and played a central role in NATO alignment, and Alexander Stubb, who held the prime ministership and later led Finland’s European affairs. Haavisto, 65, is a Green party veteran with a reputation for charisma and versatility, occasionally engaging in public performances as a DJ. Stubb, 55, hails from the conservative camp and has long been a recognizable figure within Europe’s political mainstream. Current polling suggests Haavisto holding a narrow lead or trailing by a few points to his main rival from the conservatives.
The third candidate, Jussi Halla-aho, who once led the True Finns and now serves as speaker of Parliament, registered about 16% support. Known for his controversial stance on xenophobia, he has faced legal scrutiny in the past. The party’s leadership passed to a more moderate line under Riikka Purra, who returned to the political foreground as finance minister and later as speaker of Parliament. Other candidates, including former European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Olli Rehn and Jutta Urpilainen, a former Social Democrat and European Commissioner, have faced long odds. Sanna Marin’s party continues to navigate a political rebound in the aftermath of its leader’s electoral defeat, with Marin remaining a significant public voice even as the party recalibrates its strategy.
Disruptions and rising tensions
Beyond foreign and defense considerations, the Finnish president is viewed as a moral authority and a symbol of constitutional neutrality. Finns tend to entrust the office to seasoned figures who can bridge political divides. Haavisto and Stubb fit this profile. The country is navigating a turbulent period marked not only by tensions with Moscow but also by border controls, economic pressure, and evolving regional security dynamics. The decision to tighten border measures in late autumn reflects concerns about hybrid threats and the regional instability that Russia’s actions have denoted. Economic strains and labor-market pressures have intensified, with closures and shifts in work patterns affecting several sectors, including transportation and services.
Orpo’s government has signaled a commitment to fiscal restraint and public expenditure reform, aiming to stabilize the budget after a period of increased debt. As the first round of voting approaches and a potential runoff looms, labor unions and various Finns groups are preparing responses to anticipated policy changes that could impact national economic and social programs in the near term.
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