Finland elected conservative Alexander Stubb to succeed fellow conservative Sauli Niinistö as president. Preliminary results reported by Yle showed Stubb winning by a narrow margin with 51.7% in a tightly contested second round, with about 90% of votes tallied according to public television.
The Finnish electorate spoke clearly about wanting security and steady leadership in a tense regional climate. With Russia under scrutiny amid ongoing tensions and NATO entry completed less than a year ago, Stubb’s victory over green candidate Pekka Haavisto, who sought a third term, marked a turning point. Haavisto earned 48.3% of ballots, underscoring the Greens’ near-miss despite broad trust he built as Foreign Minister during the NATO accession process.
The outcome creates a leadership landscape anchored in NATO alignment, alongside prime minister Petteri Orpo, another conservative. The campaigns centered on friction with Moscow and Kremlin threats, daily realities for Finns since the Ukrainian conflict began. Moscow has shifted from a commercially constructive neighbor to a risk factor, yet Finnish voters chose a measured stance and a cohesive political spectrum with few fissures.
Finland’s armed forces, already modern and capable, comprise about 25,000 troops and 900,000 reservists. In 2022 the country began strengthening its defenses and its 1,340-kilometer border, which remains closed from November through mid-April. Defense spending exceeds 2% of GDP, aligning with NATO objectives and signaling a long-term commitment to deterrence.
The two candidates delivered a high-caliber debate in the tiebreaking round, focusing on unity and governance rather than sharp divisions. The president’s duty, beyond party lines, is to represent all 5.5 million Finns. Haavisto, running as an independent despite Greens roots, demonstrated an ability to appeal beyond his party’s base.
The presidency’s core powers center on foreign and defense policy, including acting as commander-in-chief with final say on strategic matters, though decisions are usually made in concert with the government. This framework echoed Niinistö’s own approach to NATO integration, a stance Haavisto supported during his earlier tenure as foreign minister in the government led by Prime Minister Sanna Marin.
Finland’s Atlantic Alliance membership, confirmed in April 2023, shifted political dynamics and reinforced a conservative tilt in national leadership. While Stubb signaled readiness to debate hosting allied bases and, in theory, the possibility of deploying on Finnish soil, current legal constraints still constrain nuclear deployments. The contrast with Haavisto’s more environmental and multidimensional approach highlighted the policy differences that dominated the campaign.
Return after seven years on the sidelines
Stubb, aged 55, returns to Finland’s leadership after a seven-year pause marked by internal party debates with Prime Minister Orpo. The Kokoomus party’s internal contest split the vote in 2016, sending Stubb abroad to serve as vice-president of the European Investment Bank and later into academia in Florence. His long record includes a stint as prime minister from 2014 to 2015 and leadership of multiple ministries, most notably Foreign Affairs, a credential he leveraged to frame his bid as a broad, reform-oriented conservative platform. Even before Finland embraced NATO, he had long identified as Atlanticist, aligning with the country’s strategic direction.
Stubb’s rhetoric often includes Swedish phrases, reflecting Finland’s bilingual tradition, even though Swedish is spoken by a small minority. He is married to a British lawyer and they have two children. Haavisto’s public profile contrasts with Stubb’s through personal openness: Haavisto is openly gay and married to an Ecuadorian hairdresser. The electorate’s response to personal background remains an area of interest for political observers, underscoring the diverse fabric of Finnish politics. These personal dimensions contribute to the perception of each candidate’s approach to societal inclusivity and leadership style. Sources include Finnish electoral analysis, government records, and public interviews.