Brussels moves again on Russia, this time tightening the screws on grain imports into the European Union. The goal is to curb Moscow’s ability to use agriculture to fund its war machinery and to prevent destabilization of European markets. For now there are no clear signs pointing in that direction, but the European Commission proposed on Friday, as a preventive measure, to impose for the first time a 50% tariff on Russian and Belarusian cereals, oleaginous seed products, and related goods entering the EU, including wheat, corn, and sunflour meal.
We propose tariffs on these Russian imports to mitigate the growing risk to our markets and to our farmers. They will reduce Russia’s capacity to exploit the EU for its war machine. We also reaffirm our commitment to preserving global food security, especially for developing countries. The plan balances support for the economy and agricultural communities while maintaining unwavering backing for Ukraine, according to a statement from the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen.
The initiative imposes a 50% tariff surcharge along with a customs duty of 95 euros per metric ton. It has three major goals: to prevent any future sharp redirection of Russian cereal products toward the EU market that could destabilize European markets, a concern raised by the sector; to address Russian exports of cereals stolen from Ukraine, some of which, Brussels notes, have been illegally exported to the EU market with mislabeling as Russian; and to stop Moscow from using EU export revenues to fund the war.
1.300 million in 2023
Given that Russia sold about 1,300 million euros worth of these products to the EU in 2023, the proposed tariffs would take away a significant source of profit for the Russian economy and, by extension, its war machinery. The increase will also apply to Belarusian production due to the country’s close political and economic ties with Russia, aiming to prevent the Kremlin from channeling its goods to the EU through Belarus while evading the new duties. The proposal, in any case, would affect only production destined for EU consumption, not transit to third countries, so it would not impact global food security. The next step will be debate and approval in the Council, where, since this is not a strict sanction, a qualified majority of member states will suffice. One EU official described the proposal as simple and capable of fast passage.
According to data handled by the Commission, Russia exported 4.2 million tons of grain to the European Union in 2023, valued at 1.3 billion euros. Belarus, in turn, exported 610,000 tons for 246 million euros. This represents about 1% of the entire European market, a volume that currently does not have an immediate impact but could become significant in the future.
With Russia’s vast production and a notable rise in shipments, Brussels believes many of these exports could be redirected toward European markets, potentially perturbing prices. It is seen as a preventive move to shield the EU from destabilizing effects of such shifts. The same sources emphasize that the measure aims to protect the bloc from price shocks while keeping a protective stance toward European consumers.
The final decision will rest with the Council, which will decide by majority rule since the measure does not constitute a sanction. Officials say the plan can move quickly if there is political will. The Commission notes that Russia’s and Belarus’s grain flows represent a relatively small share of the market but could grow if not contained. Analysts in Brussels stress the importance of guarding food security for the EU and for global markets, especially in regions most vulnerable to hunger and price volatility.
In summary, Brussels argues that the tariffs are a targeted, preventive measure designed to curb attempts to destabilize European markets through shifts in grain flows, curb the theft and mislabeling of cereals from Ukraine, and reduce revenue that could support Moscow’s war effort. The proposal is framed as a move to protect both the economy and the agricultural backbone of Europe while continuing to stand with Ukraine in the broader effort to maintain regional stability and global food security.