How could this be? The question overwhelms much of society after the events surrounding the attempted power shift in Brazil. While some observers argue that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva expanded his political capital by handling the coup episode, others contend that he exposed the fragility of the alliances that brought him to power after a narrow election defeat by Jair Bolsonaro. The uneasy mix of left, center, and even right in the political space did not yet demonstrate a solid capacity for cohabitation.
In the days surrounding the incident, the Brazilian Intelligence Agency faced leadership gaps. As mobilizations escalated, Abin issued multiple warnings about imminent risks. One report noted a surge in travel toward Brasilia, with hundreds of buses carrying thousands of participants. Officials warned of acts and attempts to occupy public buildings, particularly around Ministry Square. Questions linger about whether Lula anticipated these warnings or whether crucial information was overlooked. The inquiry continues into whether the government should have acted differently to counter extremist efforts and prevent Bolsonarism from gaining ground through media, business, and parts of the conservative spectrum.
That line of questioning runs into other facets of a complex reality. During the most intense moments on Sunday, Lula reportedly expressed frustration with the moderate defense minister, who described the Bolsonaro camps as a spectacle of democracy.
military factor
Those encamped before army units were moved within 24 hours, yet the damage left by the events in Brasilia persisted. Analyst commentary highlighted that many of the radicals have military backgrounds or family ties to active service members. The Army proceeded in an orderly, institutional manner and did not target individuals with close associations to the military. This sequence underscored the delicate balance the administration sought between enforcing order and avoiding broader confrontation with the armed forces.
At that moment, Lula recognized a clear dynamic in the relationship with the Armed Forces. Silence about January 8 appeared to be a larger issue than friction with opposition governors or a conservative Congress. Some units favored reforms and alignment with reformist goals, while a faction within the institution harbored reservations about the Labor Party and the far right’s attempts to mobilize. The tension highlighted the enduring impact of historical affiliations on present-day decisions.
According to subsequent reporting, Lula was informed about a list of individuals and groups believed to have financed the coup, including certain business figures and international connections within the agricultural sector. In response, Lula criticized the role of agribusiness in environmental degradation. Before expressing anger, he floated the idea of closer collaboration within his government among environmental leadership and agricultural representatives to restore balance between development and sustainability.