Brazilian Election Dynamics: Lula, Bolsonaro, and the Move Toward 2022-23 Center-Right Coalitions

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Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva completed a calculated effort to unseat Jair Bolsonaro as Brazil prepares for the next presidential election on October 2. Polls reflect growing consideration of this scenario, yet Lula, leader of the Workers’ Party (PT), knows the race remains perilous as Sunday approaches. In a climate thick with polarization and threats to question results, Lula’s strongest weapon may be restraint, appealing to voters who long for social equality while wary of any move toward a renewed right-wing agenda.

This shift toward centrism is not new for Lula. Two decades ago, he softened his rhetoric to win against Jose Serra. Back then, Lula chose Jose Alencar, a wealthy textile businessman and Liberal Party (PL) senator, as his running mate—the same party that later promoted Bolsonaro’s candidacy. Lula’s phrase “lulinha peace and love” signaled a programmatic shift that stirred fractures within the PT (historical context, cited in contemporary accounts).

The pressure to beat Bolsonaro pushed Lula to demonstrate greater restraint. His prior “Letter to the People of Brazil,” written two decades ago, signaled a move away from the PT’s hard-edged positions of the 1980s and 1990s. He reached out again to former opponents who had publicly attacked him. As part of this pivot, he decided that the vice president would be a conservative ally, a figure like Geraldo Alckmin, whom he had faced in the 2006 elections under tougher circumstances (historical note).

Intersection

Early in the year, a portion of society that supported a “third way” lens appeared to favor Lula and the retired captain. The shift did not materialize. The former president faced disenchantment and anger accumulated during four years in power. Political strategists explained that for the PT, prudence and coalition-building were essential to unify those who opposed Bolsonaro. Debates around neoliberalism remained peripheral but not entirely absent, according to Breno Altman, director of World Opera, who noted Lula’s campaign would avoid a rigid, programmatic platform and instead focus on broad appeal. Critics questioned whether Lula’s willingness to engage opponents would prove costly, predicting a potential price for any decisive win.

For Lula, quelling the far-right threat is imperative. This week, he addressed major business figures and bankers, urging them to rebuild the alliance that fractured in 2014. “I need you to help end Brazil’s misery. It’s not just my problem,” Lula told magnates, with backing from former Central Bank governor Henrique Meirelles, whose opinions carry considerable influence. Wealthy agribusiness magnate Rubens Ometto, who helped fund Bolsonarism in the past, met with Lula. Economists close to the influential São Paulo State Industrial Federation (FIESP) weighed in, signaling that many respected voices were prepared to vote against past PT policies because of perceived inconsistencies with the nation’s economic trajectory.

Did you help us all? pic.twitter.com/ZU89MtCDhU

— Anitta (@Anitta) 13 July 2022

“Helpful vote” and demonstration

Lula faces the challenge of winning sufficient support in the first round. Cyrus Gomes of PDT and Simone Tebet of MDB, both positioned in the middle-left and center-right, respectively, were cited in studies as potential swing figures. A Genial/Quaest study suggests that about half of the followers of these candidates could change their preferences. A so-called “vote of shame”—where supporters who had not publicly endorsed Lula might secretly shift—could shape the final tally. The PT’s prospects could improve if abstentions fall, while Bolsonaro seeks to mobilize those same undecided voters.

There was a moment when Lula began following Pabllo Vittar on social media, signaling a broader effort to connect with diverse audiences. The exchange drew attention from supporters and critics alike, highlighting the strategic use of celebrity endorsements and cultural visibility in modern Brazilian politics (contextual reference).

Several stars who had not previously aligned with Lula expressed support during the campaign. Rachel Scheherazade, a television host known for conservative views, posed with Lula in a show of endorsement. The debate between democracy and authoritarianism loomed large in media conversations, with pundits noting that figures like Anitta, a major Latin American pop star, publicly stated support for Lula. Anitta’s large social following amplified the campaign’s reach, while other celebrities weighed in with varying degrees of endorsement and skepticism about PT leadership (media commentary context).

Pablo Vittar, one of the most famous transgender artists globally, used the platform to convey political momentum for Lula. Vittar’s remarks during a rally underscored the potential impact of cultural figures in shaping election decisions and mobilizing younger voters. This dynamic illustrated how celebrity voices converge with political messaging in contemporary campaigns (artist commentary).

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