clearly after 2023 economic activity Gone braking As the months passed, the provincial economy entered the new year in trouble. very different perspectives according to different sectors This region forms the fertile fabric of Alicante, with tourism still doing well and having good prospects, and a sector (especially footwear) showing the effects of inflation on consumption in Europe.
In general terms, the president of the autonomous employers’ association CEV, Salvador NavarroHe guarantees that the expectations for 2024 are as follows “positive“despite everything slowdown in activity This has been recorded in recent months. So don’t forget this Employment remains ‘strong’allowing families to spend; The ECB had already predicted this There will be no new interest rate increases; and inflation is increasingly controlled. Well, Dark clouds Threatening the economy last year start to fall apartThis will ensure that activity remains positive despite the impact of the global slowdown, which could put pressure on the external sector.
He also highlights as a positive fact: government formationThis eliminates yet another of the uncertainties that slowed business investment last year and, in the case of the Valencian Community, also highlights the following: new Consell’s pro-business policies, such as the promised administrative simplification. Likewise, consider unlocking. Expansion of the Port of Valencia can representcall effect” for new investments by both international and local companies. Therefore, Navarro believes that as the year progresses, analysts will raise their GDP growth forecasts for this year, with the organization itself currently estimating it in a range between 1.5% and 1.75%.
Foundations for growth
Similarly, the president of the Alicante Family Business Association (Aefa), Maite Antonalso takes into account the provincial economy We will continue to move forward “despite the uncertainties” They still exist and insist on the need for tax cuts to increase the competitive capacity of companies and stimulate activity. “If we encourage consumption and activity, There is a foundation to continue to grow“says Antón, demanding that bureaucratic obstacles be eliminated as soon as possible.
President of the Alicante Province (Uepal) Labor Union, Cesar QuintanillaHe points out that the slowdown comes at a time when companies are “much better prepared compared to other crises. They did their homework financially and are not that much in debt. Moreover, they have learned to stockpile after what happened to their supply chains at the end of the epidemic, so even situations like the Red Sea will have less impact.”
By sectors, tourism He is the one who looks at the new year with the greatest optimism. ” The predictions for 2024 are very good. With the change in mentality after Covid, Travel and entertainment increasingly dominate spending priorities. People are demanding more free time,” says Hosbec’s president. Fede FusteFor example, he points out that the volume of New Year’s reservations in his company is much higher than those recorded in the same period last year. Moreover, reservations are made in advance. To this we must add the Gaza conflict. It will direct a significant part of the demand coming to Egypt and Turkey so far. Exporting to other destinations in the Western Mediterranean will also contribute to the improvement of the sector’s figures.
Public affairs
Another sector hoping to improve its numbers is the construction industry. Public affairs. “They come Two or three years could be very good for the industry. So far, only 15 percent of the projects have been implemented. New Generation funds This must be spent by 2026, and a significant part will be allocated to studies,” states the FOPA president. Javier Gisbert, This also predicts an improvement in orders from the private sector. Moreover, these will be more profitable projects, as the contracts will reflect the increase in materials in recent years, forcing many companies in the sector to execute at a loss the many awards they received before this increase.
For his part, the general secretary of the Provincial Supporters Association (Provia), Jesualdo Ros“predicts an exercise”standardization“in the sector living spaceThe first half of 2023, after the 2022 eruption. It is a year in which there will be activity due to the implementation of many projects that were abandoned, but fewer new projects will be seen, and the expected rates are expected. temperate.
in the industry MetalPresident of Fempa, Jorge Ibanez, predicts a good start to the year after a “normal” ending 2023. “Especially in sectors like this installations or air conditioningcompanies owned orders And they have budgets. “We think that the activity will revive in the coming months after the break in the past months,” he said.
worry
On the other hand, shoe entrepreneurs see 2024 as to worry“, in the words of the president of Avecal, Marian Canobefore decline in exports The sector has accelerated in recent months due to the loss of purchasing power of families and adverse climatic conditions in major European markets (the decline reached 40% in October, and the cumulative figure for the year is close to 8%). It’s extremely hot, which doesn’t encourage shoe purchases. “If businesses sold less, we already know that will result in fewer orders at upcoming fairs. We have a tough year ahead of us,” Cano admits.
A situation he claims “stability” He points to the task ahead of adapting to changes in issues such as labor regulations (the industry is strongly opposed to reducing working hours) as well as changes in regulations from Europe on recycling or labeling, among other issues. However, the president of Avecal reminds that the industry has faced difficult situations before and has shown a great capacity for resilience.
For the industry toy It is difficult to predict next year The numbers for this campaign have not been finalized yet. and it is in a very important week – the week of the Three Kings – that the mark of the exercise is determined. Like footwear, the sector suffers first-hand from the effects of inflation on European families’ pockets and hindering exports; But everything indicates that the national market has woken up in recent weeks and can correct the situation. Looking to 2024, the general manager of AEFJ, the industry’s employer association, said: José Antonio Priest, trust that it is predictable Lowering Euribor and controlling inflation to give permission improve the situation We are facing the end of the year.
Drought
The “big threat” when it comes to agriculture, as the president of Asaja Alicante reminds, is drought, which keeps reservoirs in irrigated areas to a minimum and makes production in drylands extremely complicated. José Vicente Andreu. The agricultural leader already foresees interruptions in the planting of seasonal vegetables -like the artichoke- but also afraid Survival of thousands of fruit trees. Added to this lack of water are the following: climate change changesUntimely rains and lack of cold for the hardening of fruits also negatively affect the production capacity of many crops. And all this, as Andreu points out, demand is strongThis is reflected in the good development in exports.