Exactly one year from now, November 5, 2024, United States of America goes to the polls for choose your president. Everything indicates that, as in 2020, they will have to choose between these options: Democrat Joe Bidencurrent occupant of the Oval Office and DonaldTrump, Today he is the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination. But this is not a normal repeat of that duel and the US is entering the last 12 months. elections In many areas, These are unprecedented.
Biden And embers they would be 81 and 78 years respectively In November next year, The two oldest candidates in history. With increasing difficulty this year independent and third party candidatesThey want one person’s vote radically polarized nation Where map of decisive states reduced more and more, coupled with this electoral college system leave him final decision by several thousand votes. And they fight their war in the USA 75 percent of the population thinks democracy is at risk and more and more citizens 23% According to a recent poll by the Public Religion Research Institute (and 33% specifically for Republicans), they believe: “Because things are not going well, true patriots may have to do this.” resorting to violence to save the homeland”.
Trump leads despite accusations
Only once before, in 1892, had a president faced the candidate he had defeated in the previous election, but neither then nor No candidate has been like Trump.: A former president has been indicted on 91 charges in four criminal cases, including a federal case of conspiracy to commit impeachment and overturn the election result a losing, ending strategy Attack on the Capitol On January 6, 2021.
Although there are doubts about how these accusations and possible decisions will affect him in the Presidential elections, they helped him for now. reinforce the support at the base Republicans. Trump remains the undisputed leader in the primaries he is currently participating in Former Vice President Mike Pence steps off the plane Where Virginia’s governor may enter after the crucial state election this Tuesday Glenn Youngkin and Where former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is already chasing Florida’s governor Ron DeSantis, Even though it is far away for now, it will consolidate itself as a second option.
The former president also strengthened his claim party dominance Together ally as Mike JohnsonBiden, one of the architects of the legal strategy to prevent Biden from being certified in 2020, rose to the powerful position of speaker of the Lower House.
“All the stress of 2020 is being carried over to 2024” warns in an email Richard Hasen, Professor of Law and Political Science at the University of California, Los Angeles, and director of the Election Protection Project. “There is Crisis of confidence in elections “What is important now in this country is to find ways to hold a fair election in 2024 and to create conditions of sufficient confidence to ensure that the results are accepted as legitimate by the majority.”
Biden’s polls and challenges
surveys They are giving a presentation today Fierce duel between Trump and BidenThe Real Clear Politics average rose half a point above Republicans this Friday (and also some to Haley in a potential duel with the Democrat). And yet Ray La Raja, political scientist In an interview from the University of Massachusetts Amherst, he recalls: “Polls mean absolutely nothing right now.” he says, emphasizing that “the people do not pay attention to the elections”, but the campaigns do.
in case Democratic strategistssome Mike LuxThat positive vision continues, with May co-authoring a memorandum that optimistically looks at November 2024 as an opportunity not only to renew his tenure in the White House, but also to preserve the Senate and save the House of Representatives. But now he added a big asterisk. “I still believe that Fundamentals favor democrats But War in Gaza a major challenge for 2024”Lux explains in an email. “This will cause major damage to the unit democratic party And if the war drags on, will greatly hurt participation among progressives, young people, and people of color” is a key part of the coalition that brought Biden to the White House in 2020.
This is the consensus among many analysts and pundits, and one of the biggest concerns about the president’s campaign, which is already being pressured by some. low approval ratingsIt hangs in the air or can’t even reach 40%) and for lack of enthusiasm arousing his candidacy (with him) age as key factor of this disappointment).
Alan Abramowitz, political scientist Emory University’s believes Democrats can count on:civil and voting rights organizations Concerning voter registration and mobilization and majority participation labor movement”, particularly that Biden has consistently supported unions and has historically positioned himself on the side of engine workers, who have made significant progress following their strikes. However, in the economic field, the president has Difficulties in getting the message across about the good results of economic policies between working classmost affected by inflation. Uncertain development of the economy or the effects it may have Geopolitical developments on issues such as gasoline pricesraises unknowns.
Biden and Democrats hope to ensure voter mobilization as in 2022 parliamentary elections progressives fight against more abortion restrictions and lean on it rejection of independents and the so-called “suburban moms” The figure of Trump and his attacks on the integrity of the election system. But they also face headwindsProgress in support of rights Because LGTBQ is especially about community tranceAttacks by Republicans on issues such as immigration or crime and one Steady flow of Latino and black votes towards the conservative bloc.
A reduced map
Every vote counts, especially considering the trend reduction in the number of decisive situations intensified. Florida and Ohiotraditionally discussed every time lean more firmly Republicans. Some analysts, such as Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, already have limited four States where the presidency will be determined in 2024: Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. A move of just 43,000 votes in the first three votes Biden mustered in 2020 after Trump’s victory in 2016 would lead to an electoral college tie in the last presidential election (which, as in 1824, led to the decision in 1824). would happen). low camera). But other analysts include: Pennsylvania, North Carolina and MichiganPerhaps it is the state where the votes of the Muslim community have the most weight.
They will also come into operation in 2024 third candidatesindependent from Robert Kennedy Jr. progressive Cornel WestIn addition to suggestions such as green, libertarians and newly born and still without a candidate “No tags” (Without labels). Although in current polls these third forces even 15% and 20% Against the two main parties, Emory political scientist Abramowitz reminds us: “We know from past experience that the numbers are almost certain. will decrease greatly The closer we get to the elections.” But Professor La Raja believes: “They can definitely be a factor.” and Democratic strategist Lux believes: “They certainly have the necessary information. potential to be destructive”.