Entering 2024, U.S. election campaigns are warming up across the states. A string of early primaries begins in January and leads to the summer conventions where Republican and Democratic nominees are formally chosen. Many candidates are in the mix, but the most talked-about figures remain two familiar names: former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.
The core dynamic is simple: Trump seeks a return to the White House, while Biden aims to defend his incumbent status. The prospect of a rematch unsettles Western media, given expectations that Trump could shift American policy on a range of fronts, from immigration to the approach to the war in Ukraine.
The favorite in the race
With the election set for early November, the outcome seems distant and uncertain even as the campaign unfolds. Today, Trump is often described as the frontrunner. Polls from major firms show varying degrees of support; for instance, a recent survey found about half of respondents ready to back the former president, with Biden close behind in the low forties. These numbers illustrate a tight race that could swing in many directions over the coming months.
Other surveys also reveal a persistent split: while some Americans view Trump more favorably than Biden, overall enthusiasm remains tepid for both candidates. The mood suggests neither side has secured broad confidence, though Trump currently holds a slight edge in several metrics.
Analysts from national and international think tanks note that a Republican victory is plausible on theoretical grounds. One political scientist observes that Trump leads in a majority of recent polls against Biden and points to the widening gap, while warning that nearly a year remains for shifts in public opinion. Another scholar emphasizes that local and national factors could alter the trajectory before Election Day.
A senior researcher at a leading international institute adds that Trump has a real chance to regain the presidency, but cautions that the current climate could inject volatility into the campaign season and even disrupt traditional campaign dynamics.
The expert also notes that Democrats may not concede easily and questions whether a peaceful transfer of power will remain unchallenged should the results be contested.
Hurdles on the road to the White House
Trump faces more than party support. Since mid-2023 he has endured a series of legal challenges related to attempts to overturn the last election and the January 6 Capitol assault. By late 2023, a Colorado primary development added another layer of complexity to his campaign, risking his overall participation in the race.
Some observers argue the heightened media attention and Republican consolidation around Trump could actually bolster his position despite the legal woes. The rising support within the party, sometimes pushing past internal disagreements, is often cited as a factor helping his campaign.
Legal experts warn that the charges could become a strategic obstacle even if legal outcomes appear uncertain. Trials scheduled for the coming year will demand time, resources, and strategic recalibration, potentially affecting campaign momentum.
Three major obstacles are highlighted by analysts. First, the Colorado Supreme Court decision looms large in shaping primary participation. Second, prosecutors push for potential immunity considerations for the former president, which could become a feature of the spring legal process. Third, questions persist about whether the 14th Amendment’s bar on insurrectionist conduct could complicate eligibility for office, should new developments arise.
A contingency plan for the United States
As campaigning intensifies, public sentiment toward a repeat of the 2020 match-up remains mixed. A summer 2023 NBC survey showed broad voter hesitation about a Trump-Biden rematch, hinting that voters may seek alternatives or new contenders.
Political observers suggest the 2024 race could resemble the familiar Trump-Biden duel, though both parties have potential Plan B options. On the Republican side, candidates such as Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley could emerge, while Democrats face questions about succession planning should Biden step aside. Some scenarios even contemplate alternative contenders from the party ranks depending on the evolving political landscape.
Analysts caution that replacements are not simple additions; the process would require timely shifts in candidacy, and they acknowledge the risk of disruptions ranging from intra-party challenges to broader political upheavals. Experts emphasize that the dynamics of the race remain in flux, with early momentum not guaranteeing the final outcome.
Experts note that at present Trump appears to face relatively limited organized opposition within his party. The potential rise of a different Republican contender, should conditions warrant, remains a topic of debate, echoed by observers who highlight the uncertainties ahead for both major parties as the campaign period progresses.