Despite calls of a pre-campaign and a real campaign, with formal nominations, debates, and the ongoing clash among contenders, the United States remains in a perpetual election cycle. The year 2024 opened with Joe Biden in office and Donald Trump resisting conventional expectations after the Capitol events, and it has already featured landmark moments, including a historic Supreme Court decision last summer. That ruling, which affected abortion protections, still resonates. Yet nothing eclipses this week’s impeachment proceedings against Trump, a former president and the Republican front-runner for the next presidential election. Both he and his declared and potential rivals in the GOP race, as well as Democrat Biden, are now shaping strategies around this explosive development.
Biden chose to maintain a cautious silence about last week’s events. White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre deflects, noting they do not comment on ongoing cases. Michael Gerhardt, a constitutional law professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, told Newsweek that if Biden weighs in, it could politicize him and potentially help Trump politically.
Trump is clearly influencing the dialogue, and a key point is this: 2024 still holds a choice; Trump has not officially announced a reelection bid, though every signal points toward it. The question is when and how the impeachment debate will extend into the summer or even autumn, as Axios reported this week. If Biden announced in April, following a playbook similar to Obama in 2011, he might begin fundraising and cast a shadow of enthusiasm issues around a potential bid. Yet the president and his strategists are not rushing. The crucial issue remains timing and message.
An exercise in contradictions
The President, who plans a trip to Ireland this month, has settled on a current path: presenting himself as a hands-on manager during turbulent times. The nation faces a tough era, with the debt ceiling battle likely to escalate in the summer into a high-stakes, high-tension confrontation. Efforts to convey order amid division and show resilience often collide with the circus-like atmosphere surrounding Trump, amplifying the sense of drama around the presidency.
Participation in the impeachment discourse does not promise immediate gains for Biden and the Democrats. Silence could keep them at a distance unless the Bragg case leads to a conviction against Trump in the coming months. Observers broadly agree the indictment strengthens Trump’s prospects to run as the GOP nominee, while also suggesting the general election would be more challenging for him than the primaries.
Political arithmetic suggests that Trump’s odds would be lower if he cannot persuade voters who did not back him in 2020, and if criminal charges complicate his appeal. Geoff Garling, a Democratic poll analyst from The Washington Post, summed up the challenge. Even Republican strategist Karl Rove noted in The Wall Street Journal that Trump faces difficult math among independent voters.
In a recent survey, only 31% approved of Biden’s handling of the economy and 27% approved of border policy, while another poll showed 60% support when charged. The numbers for Trump among independents were 41% in 2020, dipping from 48% in 2016. Analysts warn that silence money won’t win votes, a point emphasized by Rove.
Meanwhile, the impeachment brought two progressive victories at the polls. One saw a Democrat elected mayor in Chicago, signaling support for urban policies often criticized by Trump and opponents. The other victory came in Wisconsin, where a progressive decision shifted the Supreme Court leftward, underscoring how rights tied to abortion and Democratic progress can influence swing-state outcomes.
Strengthened in the primaries
For now, the trajectory toward a Trump presidential bid appears unblocked. He has managed to turn a political risk into an asset and remains the undisputed leader, even while facing rivals like Ron DeSantis. Bloomberg quoted a Republican strategist saying the indictment could become the central narrative of the near future, a dynamic that Trump is leveraging in the early primary battles.
In addition to early fundraising, with tens of millions raised in short order, polling continues to show strong support for Trump’s candidacy among many voters. Other contenders, mindful of their own vulnerability, attack the indictment as political persecution while avoiding personal assaults on Trump. The Atlantic featured commentary illustrating the high-stakes nature of the moment for the GOP, with observers noting that many want to be the last person to face the so-called crocodile.
It remains unclear whether Trump’s momentum will endure. Some observers recall that rises often come with a fall, yet Trump is bending those expectations. The first Republican primary debates are scheduled for August, with early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire not happening until early next year. For now, Trump holds the upper hand. A longtime strategist from Romney’s 2012 campaign noted that the party’s shifts tend to move toward Trump’s lane, while another adviser used a provocative image to describe the energy around MAGA supporters.