Most 2020 Biden voters, who helped him win the White House, now say the president is too old to be effective, a finding that could threaten his bid for reelection this year as he sits at 81. This shift in sentiment surfaced in a recent survey and highlights a broader concern among a large portion of the electorate about age and presidential capability.
The survey released over the weekend by the New York Times and Siena College shows that 61 percent of those polled believe the Democrat is too old to lead effectively. A notable 19 percent of Biden’s 2020 supporters go so far as to say the octogenarian is no longer capable of performing the duties of the office. The results reveal a crosscutting worry that spans generations, gender, race, and education levels, with 63 percent of all registered voters saying Biden is too old to be effective and 45 percent expressing doubt that he could do the job of president.
The findings come amid a broader political moment in which questions about age and cognitive health have become a frequent line of inquiry as campaigns press forward, with a special focus on how health assessments are interpreted in the electoral arena. Earlier in the electoral cycle, a special counsel’s description of the incumbent as an elderly man with good intentions but diminished faculties because of age added fuel to the debate about fitness for office.
In the months that followed, Biden has had several verbal slips during public remarks, including a moment when he confused Emmanuel Macron, the current French president, with François Mitterrand, who led France from 1981 to 1995. Such moments are often highlighted by opponents and supporters alike as potential indicators of a candidate’s mental sharpness on the campaign trail, even as critics remind audiences that public figures occasionally stumble for a variety of reasons beyond age alone.
Nevertheless, last week brought a positive counterpoint when Biden underwent his annual physical and was deemed healthy, with his physician affirming that he is fit for duty. This contrast between health assessments and public perception underscores the complex dynamic at work: voters weigh medical evaluations against real-world performance and the intangible chemistry of leadership when considering reelectability.
Although there is only a four-year age gap between Donald Trump and Biden and the Republican contender has also experienced moments of misstatement, respondents in the survey did not mirror the same level of concern about the GOP candidate. New polls from across outlets point in different directions on who would prevail in a head-to-head match, illustrating the volatility and the role that age plays as a frame for voters evaluating both candidates.
A Wall Street Journal survey published over the weekend found that about 73 percent of those polled said Biden is too old to pursue reelection, while 52 percent viewed Trump as too old to run for the White House. If reelected, Biden would enter the final years of his presidency as the oldest incumbent in American history, while Trump would be 82 at the end of his term and Biden would be 86, should both reach those endpoints.
Trump holds a narrow edge over Biden
Several surveys released this weekend suggest that if the election were held today, Trump would win, but not by a wide margin. The WSJ poll shows 47 percent backing Trump and 45 percent backing Biden. Another major outlet, the Times, reports that in a direct Biden-versus-Trump matchup, 48 percent would vote for Trump to Biden’s 43 percent. A Fox News poll published the same day shows a tighter race with 49 percent supporting Trump and 47 percent Biden in a potential rematch.
The voting blocs that favor Trump most strongly tend to be white evangelical Christians, white men without college degrees, and rural voters, according to Fox. In Biden’s camp, support clusters around Black voters, urban voters, and university graduates. The competing signals from these surveys reflect a political landscape where demographic coalitions and issue salience shape the dynamic, rather than a single factor alone.
Both the Times and Fox polls also indicate that Nikki Haley, Biden’s Republican primary rival, could pose a greater challenge to him in a general election than the former president, suggesting that the field’s composition matters as much as individual head-to-head dynamics. The topics that voters say matter most in the United States are the economy and immigration, underscoring the policy battleground that could decide the outcome in November.
Analysts note that while multiple surveys show Trump with a lead in certain scenarios, the margins are not insurmountable and could shift with new developments on the economy, foreign policy, or domestic issues. The broader takeaway for voters and observers is that age remains a salient frame in political discourse, but it is only one piece of a complex electoral puzzle that includes health narratives, policy positions, campaign strategy, and the broader mood of the country at that moment in time.