The suspense that often accompanies the so-called Super Tuesday, the biggest voting day in the United States primary process, is notably absent this year. There is no doubt that President Joe Biden on the Democratic side and former President Donald Trump on the Republican side will surge ahead, marking a major step toward securing the nomination for the November elections. They still need to pick up a few more delegates to ensure a majority at their parties’ summer conventions, but the momentum is clearly in their favor.
As political strategist and pollster Frank Luntz told The Guardian, this Super Tuesday is “the least relevant in 2024” and signals that the race is effectively headed toward a rematch of the 2020 presidential contest.
Despite that relative irrelevance, the day remains highly watched. Beyond the immediate results, this round of primaries will continue to offer information about the strengths and weaknesses of Biden and Trump, shaping the narrative and the strategy for the months ahead.
This guide covers the main events of the day on the largest day of the nomination season.
Who Votes
In the Republican contests, 15 states hold primaries or caucuses, distributing more than a third of the delegates that will head to the convention in July in Milwaukee.
On the Democratic side, 16 states plus the territory of American Samoa participate, with about 1,420 delegates up for grabs for the August convention in Chicago.
Among these states, which include California, Texas, Colorado, Massachusetts, and Alabama, North Carolina stands out as a swing state that often proves decisive in presidential races. Analysts will closely examine Biden’s performance there, given that he won North Carolina by a single point in 2020, and will listen to exit polls to gauge voters’ primary concerns and motivations.
Trump
The former president arrives on Super Tuesday in strong form. He has won all the pre-tournament matchups except in Washington, D.C., where Nikki Haley won over the weekend. And on Monday he achieved a significant Supreme Court victory that prevented states like Colorado from blocking his ballot access by labeling him an insurrectionist.
Because several Super Tuesday states allocate delegates on a winner-take-all basis, Trump is expected to sweep much of the vote. Nevertheless, even a sweeping victory may not reach the magic delegate threshold of 1,215 delegates (out of 2,429 total) that his campaign says it aims to surpass by the middle of March.
Eyes will also watch to see whether, as in past primaries, the results portend a tougher road in November. Analysts will look for signals on how he fares with college-educated voters and in suburban and rural areas where his support has shown limits.
Biden
Biden faces less competition than Trump, though he faces two remaining challengers on the ballot: Representative Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson, who briefly rejoined the race after a brief Michigan surge.
The race took on extra significance in Michigan, where Biden faced a notable protest vote that highlighted concerns over his handling of foreign policy, particularly the Israel-Gaza crisis and its humanitarian consequences.
While the Super Tuesday states are not expected to produce similar protests, pockets of discontent exist in states such as Minnesota, California, Vermont, Colorado, and North Carolina.
As Biden delivers his State of the Union address on Thursday, the campaign remains focused on the potential matchup with Trump. The Tuesday results will still provide an electoral pulse check, revealing whether enthusiasm for Biden remains strong among younger voters and minority communities, and whether concerns about his age and stamina persist.
Haley
Nikki Haley’s victory in Washington, D.C., though symbolic given that only a small number of delegates were at stake, allows her to stamp a notable milestone on Trump’s path if she decides how to proceed from here.
The big question is what Haley will do next on the national stage. If she continues her campaign, those who supported her in New Hampshire and South Carolina will expect a continued fight; if she steps aside, it could consolidate support for Trump among moderate Republicans and independents who have backed her in the early primaries.
Publicly, Haley had pledged to stay in the race until the end, and her campaign reported February fundraising of around 12 million dollars. However, she has also begun to lose traction with large donors and has not announced upcoming campaign events for the next rounds of primaries.
Haley could choose to withdraw and clear the path for Trump. Whether she endorses him or persuades her supporters to back him remains a question. In a recent interview she suggested she would not feel bound by an earlier pledge to back the party nominee, a stance that has complicated the Republican expectations set by the national committee for debates and participation in early primary states.
Other Votes
This Super Tuesday also covers primaries and local elections important for November’s broader contests, including control of both chambers of Congress and several gubernatorial races.
Attention is especially drawn to numerous California districts in the House races, where Republicans currently hold a narrow majority that could be extended or narrowed depending on Tuesday’s outcomes.
Also in California, the contest to replace the late Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein looms large. The top two candidates, who will face off in November, had been viewed as likely Democrats in recent months, but recent developments have raised the possibility of a Republican challenge in a state that leans Democratic overall. The two leading finishers this Tuesday are expected to advance to November, with discussions centering on whether the final matchup will be a Schiff-Porter Democrat pairing or a Schiff-Garvey Republican contest.
As the day unfolds, observers will plot every twist and turn, listening for shifts in momentum, fundraising momentum, and the continuing debate over the direction each party will take heading into a pivotal electoral year.