BavariaA ‘country’ synonymous with bustling Oktoberfest, conservative traditionalism, economic prosperity and industrial might is electing its new regional Parliament this Sunday. Approximately 9.4 million voters were called to the polls. Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) is the party that has been in power since 1950, and although it is far from the absolute majority it had in the past and is trending downward, it will continue to be so, while two more right-wing formations draw strength from it: namely in the name Free Voters -or Freie Wähler-, regional in nature and Alternative Germany (AfD), single party far right In the Bundestag (Federal Parliament). Chancellor’s social democracy Olaf Scholz He is expected to take fifth place, ahead of all right-wingers and also his Green partners.
Fight between the radical right
Bavarian CSU of the regional premier, Markus Söderhas always been to the right of its brother, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), like the party of great chancellors Helmut Kohl anyone Angela Merkel and currently directing Friedrich Merz. The CSU led this legislature with the support of the Free Voters, another regional party that emerged stronger from this experience as a partner. It did not stop growing even after the scandal surrounding its leader. Hubert AywangerFor an anti-Semitic youth pamphlet whose authorship he attributed to his brother.
On immigration issues, the Free Voters’ stance is not much different from that of the far-right AfD. But unlike this, it is not subject to a security cordon. It aims to make a breakthrough as a national party in the 2025 general elections.
Fight for second place
According to the polls, CSU took first place with 37 percent of the votes. Fighting for second place, for this position Green, Free Voters and AfD. These three formations are estimated to have a rate of around 16 to 14%, providing a slight advantage in terms of odds. environmentalists. The Greens are not considered partners by CSU, but finishing second would be a consolation prize. Two formations of the radical right are in a bilateral conflict. In the final stage, the AfD turned to victimization and condemned attacks or threats against its leaders; so far unconfirmed and attributable to the extreme electorate’s desperate search for empathy.
A hostile environment for any chancellor
It has always maintained tense and openly hostile relations with Bavaria. Berlin. This is an unbroken line since Prussian times and has turned the respective patriarchs of the twin CSU and CDU into rivals. Franz Josef Strauss and Helmut Kohl. Equally legendary were the scoldings Angela Merkel used at events to be publicly chastised by her theoretical Bavarian brethren.
to social democrat Olaf Scholz He was unable to perform better due to the decline in popularity of his government and the technical stagnation that Germany fell into. In the view of the CSU and its leader, its tripartite structure of Greens and Liberals is as follows: Markus SöderThe worst government in recent German history. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) is expected to come in fifth place this Sunday, falling by a record 9 percent, dragging the chancellor formation into political irrelevance in this powerful State. Their Liberal partners are predicted to have 4 per cent, which would relegate them to non-parliamentary status.
Borders and asylum
Bavaria did not have to suddenly reintroduce or strengthen controls. limits because he never eliminated them. from migration crisis Regional authorities have been carrying out these checks in coordination with Germany since 2015, when Germany accepted nearly a million refugees, mostly through Bavaria. Austria. That is, long before the current enthusiasm of Central and Eastern Europe to strengthen control in space Schengen, be in Poland, inside Slovakia or in the rest of Germany.
Bavaria also anticipated the anti-asylum movements that are now sweeping across Europe and, during the time of Angela Merkel – especially during the 2015 crisis – demanded the implementation of a measurable border on refugees. asylumthe then chancellor refused. Now they are demanding cuts in social benefits or accelerated participation in the labor market. An industrial power, Bavaria, like the rest of the country, suffers from staff shortages in almost all economic sectors.
Hesse, another poisonous choice
Elections will be held this Sunday, as well as regional elections in Bavaria. Hesse, ‘land’ where banking and financial capital is located in frankfurt. The elections, with 4.3 million voters, are also difficult for social democracy. Manages the “Country” in which it is located European Central Bank (ECB) conservative Boris Rhine Olaf Scholz’s party’s claim for these regions, in common with the Greens, was to nominate the Minister of Internal Affairs to the regional government. Nancy Faeser. The candidacy had sparked controversy because it involved combining the duties of a key ministry with an election campaign at a critical moment for German and European migration policy. Faeser is falling in the polls every week. The Rhine CDU is predicted to win 31 percent of the vote; This would almost double the predicted percentages for both Faeser’s social democrats and the far-right AfD and Greens. Scholz’s third partner, the liberals, has a balance of 5%, the minimum required to win seats.