In September, Spain ended the hydrological year with about 25% less rainfall than the long-term average, according to the State Meteorological Service (Aemet). Those records marked the third driest year in the country’s history for that month, behind 2005 and 2012.
Residents also endured three heat waves, underscoring a trend where hot summers stretch into autumn and spring with lasting effects.
This isn’t a temporary blip. Since the 1950s, Spain’s average temperature has risen roughly 1.4ºC, while precipitation declined by about 12%, as noted in AEMET’s post-summer balance. These figures reflect the influence of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate in Spain.
The gradual shifts in rainfall and temperature, along with shifting seasonal rhythms, have disrupted a cornerstone of daily life: food security.
Farmers face drought, floods, abnormal heat, shifting seasons, early flowering, and rising pest pressures—challenges rooted in climate change that demand adaptation.
2ºC rise scenario
The toll on Spanish agriculture is already visible, with an annual average loss of about 6% in agricultural production due to global warming, equating to roughly 550 million euros. This is summarized in the COAG report, The countdown begins. The effects of climate change on Spanish agriculture, produced by the Coordinator of Farmers and Farmers’ Organizations.
The report also outlines consequences for rural areas under a hypothetical 2ºC temperature increase by 2050.
In this scenario, the climate bill includes 20% of high-quality vineyard areas in Spain, 15% of central and southern wheat yields, and olive groves in Andalusia suitable for rain-fed varieties such as hojiblanca and manzanilla.
Climatic instability raises the frequency and intensity of hail and heavy rains, accelerating soil erosion. Higher temperatures can shorten growing times and force earlier harvests, even when fruit development is incomplete. Excessive water stress can reduce oleic acid content and flavor in olive oil, while increasing bitterness and reducing fruit size.
Ultimately, the spread of the olive fly and certain strains of Xylella fastidiosa—affecting hundreds of plant species—could widen. The report emphasizes urgent action to keep warming below 1.5ºC. Preventing climate change is framed as essential not only for agriculture and the economy but also to protect gastronomy, traditions, culture, and identity.
Vineyards are particularly exposed. In Castilla la Mancha, the oldest varieties like Tempranillo and Chardonnay could see a halving of the optimal area for fine wines due to climate shifts.
30% less in the world
Globally, declining crop yields could cut world agricultural production by as much as 30%, according to a study titled Climate emergency, food production and Fair Trade, released during COP27 in Egypt. In regions such as southern Africa, maize, wheat, and peas may suffer losses up to 80%, and coffee-growing areas could shrink by half.
World agriculture will need to adapt to climate change, with small producers facing especially high costs and complexity. Representatives from more than 350 million small-scale farmers urged world leaders at COP27 to act, highlighting the critical role of farming networks in feeding people and supporting livelihoods.
Leaders are advised to listen to farmers and back changes toward diverse, sustainable, and resilient food systems, particularly in agroecological farming, fisheries, forestry, and grazing. The message underscores the urgency as the current situation grows more worrisome.
Baldomero Bellido, President of the Young Farmers Association (Asaja) in Malaga: “There are farmers who choose to uproot trees”
How serious is the drought situation for crops?
The prolonged drought has shifted from worrying to serious, impacting both current and future groves, sometimes making planting impossible for the next season and threatening grove survival in some cases.
Which crops show the most urgent yield declines?
Table olives, milled olives, mangoes, almonds, pistachios, and chestnuts have been among the most affected to date.
Does drought affect product quality?
Although drought is a major factor, high summer temperatures also stress trees, reducing fruit size and sugar and fat content, which in turn can impact final quality.
Are some farmers uprooting crops due to thirst? What does this mean for manufacturers and future campaigns?
In Axarquía, some farmers are reducing water use or uprooting trees to cope with shortages. Elsewhere, rising costs create uncertainty about next season, with irrigation often limited by water availability and unclear long-term resources.
What is the situation in Axarquía, Europe’s avocado and mango belt?
The region faces a complex scenario requiring creative water management, including purified water reuse and future desalination plans to secure resources.
How does the Andalusian drought decree affect irrigation?
While concerns about water restrictions are understandable, the reality of scarce resources pushes for hydraulic projects that accumulate water and improve storage for dry periods. Ongoing planning aims to ensure infrastructure remains capable of sustaining resources during heavy rainfall years.
What are the winter outlooks after such a critical summer and a challenging agricultural year?
There is significant concern not only about water scarcity but also about policy shifts and the economic viability of farming. Anticipated cuts in aid and higher costs for energy, fertilizer, and feed compound the challenge for farms and livestock operations across the region.