The drought is already wreaking havoc on the Andalusian economy, hitting farming hard and threatening the fields’ future. The grain harvest is threatened as unpredictable rains extend into the coming months. A lengthy list will be presented next Tuesday in the Andalusian Parliament by the working group calling for urgent action. Major agricultural organizations have yet to publish figures but warn of a growing crisis on the horizon. A day later, the Ministry of Agriculture addressed the drought in Spain, but farmers remain frustrated and vocal. Months of hardship are being borne in silence and need, with farmers sounding the alarm. A Loyola University analysis estimates a 7% hit to Andalusia’s GDP from the drought, with a deeper decline projected in overall economic activity.
Large Andalusian cooperatives are already shifting exports to neighboring markets to meet commitments. Failures to clearly label origin or provenance risk unfair competition with farmers who maintain stricter controls and operate in more markets. A forthcoming European directive is tightening labeling controls. In Almería, intensive farming has long relied on some production streams routed through Morocco, a shift that has brought substantial EU funding for modernization of the agricultural sector.
This year’s drought is not an exception; it has reinforced a broader pattern acknowledged by the Andalusian agricultural sector. Typically, large market platforms receive export commitments that must be fulfilled. Climate conditions were complicated this year by three weeks of severe cold in January. Supermarket shelves in England showed shortages, while producers increasingly turned to the Moroccan market to meet quotas at lower costs and maintain supply.
Fear of severe drought is increasing, especially among farmers
Portuguese envy
The drought also redirects resources beyond Morocco, with olive oil shipments heading to Tunisia and into Portugal, where olive groves remain a dominant crop. The production decline and the absence of a steady campaign link raise concerns about price stability. Manufacturers have warned that prices could climb beyond a reachable ceiling if the supply chain remains strained.
Portugal, the neighboring country on the Iberian Peninsula, stands as a model in some respects by investing in water infrastructure. The Algarve and Alentejo have benefited from the Alqueva dam, completed in 2002, which creates a large reservoir that supports irrigation across tens of thousands of hectares. Andalusian producers have watched this investment with interest as they face a drying landscape and growing demand for reliable water resources.
brutal effect
A Loyola University study coordinated by economics professor Manuel Alejandro Cardenite, with researchers Luz Dary Beltrán and Paula Villegas, documents a significant economic toll from the drought. The report suggests a sharp decrease in income and GDP, with mitigations possible if the Junta de Andalucía’s SOS Plan for Drought Solutions and Works proceeds smoothly. The plan includes multi-year hydraulic investments approved in late 2022 and scheduled through 2027, aimed at stabilizing water access for farming communities.
Drought rises in more than half of Spain
Like the pandemic period, a dedicated government committee, led by regional authorities, has spent the legislature pushing for urgent measures and studies amid declining rainfall. Official data indicate that a substantial portion of Andalusia’s water reserves remains constrained by dam capacity. The current strategy expects to reduce drought-related income losses and GDP contraction through targeted actions and early planning.
50% cut in agriculture
The Loyola University analysis confirms a drought crisis across Spain, with Galicia, Castilla y León, Extremadura, Andalusia, Catalonia, and Navarra among the most affected regions due to scarce water resources (Hydrological Bulletin, 2022). Andalusia finds itself in one of the driest hydrological years in the last quarter-century. Data from the Guadalquivir Hydrographic Confederation show reservoirs at low levels, with limited improvement in the following period. The agricultural sector remains the hardest hit, followed by meat, dairy, and other farming-related industries that rely heavily on irrigation. Production losses have wide ripple effects across related sectors, from food processing to energy generation and transport, even as some resilience comes from planned investments in the SOS Plan.
The downturn is expected to ease only partially as the SOS Plan progresses. The agricultural sector could see a shallower decline, while other sectors may experience slower but meaningful reductions in impact. Job losses projected under drought scenarios hover around the low hundreds of thousands, with improvements contingent on effective plan execution by the regional authorities.