Alicante’s Agriculture Faces a Warming, Drought-Driven Future

The January temperature in Alicante sits around 29 degrees, a pattern now tied to climate change and its pressure on local agriculture. Almond trees are blooming a month earlier, and occasionally cherries appear out of season, a sign that farmers are watching for odd shifts. Experts warn that this trend could be permanent, underscoring a lasting upheaval in the growing cycles of the region.

Rising heat and persistent drought have strained farming, pushing irrigation to the forefront. Yet even drylands cannot escape the influence of these conditions. The unusually warm winter and record-breaking temperatures last week across many parts of the province are already impacting crops such as almonds, which should still be in a resting phase.

Contrary to expectations, a large share of plantations have begun blooming, including inland holdings that are now about a month ahead of normal schedules. This advance, combined with limited rainfall, alarms the sector and foreshadows a challenging campaign ahead.

Jose Vicente Andreu, president of Asaja Alicante, emphasizes that nature is showing unusual behavior. He notes that inland almond groves typically bloom in late February or early March, yet many trees are already fully active.

A cherry on the Vall de Gallinera this week. José Andrés Rodrigo

Andreu attributes the change to a combination of cold snaps and unusually high temperatures that feel almost like late spring. He warns that almond trees face frost danger in the remaining winter months, which will directly affect harvest volumes. He also points out that even in already dry years the crop depends on intermittent rain and moisture to survive.

Juan Pastor, who oversees the agricultural sector in La Unió, echoes this assessment. He notes several campaigns with harvests below normal and expects the current cycle to follow suit. Flowering continues, so frost remains a near certainty, intensifying drought stress. Some trees may die if irrigation is unaffordable or inaccessible, while others survive only with water costs that push farmers to the brink.

Given these pressures, Pastor considers the situation potentially catastrophic not solely due to climate factors but also because almond prices have collapsed. Almond kernels have recently traded around 2.70 euros per kilo, far short of the profitability target of about 5 euros, a decline that strains growers.

Dryland crops beyond almonds are not spared; cherry trees are showing similarly anomalous patterns. In Vall de Gallinera, some cherries began to fruit in mid-January, nearly four months ahead of the usual harvest.

Hilario Calabuig, president of the Montaña de Alicante Origin of Cherries, describes the situation as largely anecdotal but indicative. Some flowers appeared in December during a warm spell, a sign that trees have not had their proper winter rest. This early flowering could affect the harvest, although weather-driven fluctuations commonly trigger both drought and rainfall during harvest years.

Is the current year an isolated incident or a glimpse of the future? Fernando Maestre, ecology professor at the University of Alicante and a National Research Award recipient, states that the trend is here to stay. He notes that irrigated areas will shrink with ongoing drought and water scarcity, and production will become less predictable due to higher temperatures and inconsistent rainfall.

Maestre suggests a gradual shift away from traditional dry farming toward crops better suited to the new climate, such as pitahaya and other resilient varieties. He also argues for a swift transformation of the industry to ease the transition for farmers and the regional economy. He envisions a future where adaptation replaces stubborn nostalgia and where new crops, farming techniques, and water management practices converge to maintain stability in the sector.

Alongside these analyses, industry voices advocate planning for diversification and climate-smart strategies. The aim is to preserve livelihoods while reducing exposure to extreme weather. Local authorities and farming groups are urged to invest in research, water-saving technologies, and flexible cropping plans that can respond to rapid weather shifts. This approach seeks to cushion communities against unpredictable production cycles while maintaining essential food supplies.

Climate change is driving traditional agriculture in the state to extinction

So, is this year a one-off event or a sign of persistent change ahead? University of Alicante ecology experts argue that the decisive trend is likely to persist. As drought tightens water availability, irrigation will become scarcer and more expensive, and production will face greater volatility from heat, frost, and irregular rain. This reality points to a future where conventional dry farming recedes and new crops suited to the climate take its place.

The shift calls for proactive adaptation across the sector. Advocates stress the need for swift reconversion, better water management, and investment in crops that can withstand the region’s evolving climate. Through coordinated action, the agricultural community can weather the new normal while sustaining productivity and regional livelihoods.

At the same time, claims from industry leaders highlight the importance of market mechanisms that support farmers during price volatility. A balanced policy mix that includes price support during downturns and funding for research into drought-tolerant varieties can help stabilize the sector. These steps are essential if the region is to maintain agricultural vitality in the face of climate pressures. Attribution: Insights from university researchers and regional farming associations inform these projections and recommendations.