Experts forecast that budget French, Italian, and Spanish wines may soon disappear from the Russian market. This projection is based on an in-depth analysis reported by Lenta.ru and reflects broader shifts in Russia’s alcohol sector. Over recent years, the Russian market has seen a notable exodus of foreign suppliers and a steady rise in prices across most categories. Yet wine has emerged as a growing favorite among consumers, increasingly preferred over hard liquor, signaling a meaningful change in drinking habits across the country.
Industry observers expect a recalibration of tastes within the wine segment. Cheaper wines from Italy, France, and Spain are anticipated to lose ground to varieties from Chile, Argentina, and South Africa, as buyers seek better value without sacrificing quality. The shift is framed as a move toward value-oriented choices amid tightening import conditions and inflationary pressures that affect European producers as well as exporters worldwide.
A statement attributed to Castle In October, a wine trading company, notes that Italian, Spanish, and French wines are likely to contract within the upper tiers of the market while lower-priced labels could fade from shelves. The reasons cited include higher customs duties on imported wine, elevated excise taxes on both still and sparkling wines, and ongoing inflation in Europe. The assessment points to a future where price sensitivity and product mix drive purchasing decisions, reshaping retailer assortments and consumer options alike.
Industry voices also highlighted price dynamics as 2024 approaches. Maxim Kashirin, co-founder and president of Simple Group, described the likelihood that imported wines priced up to 700 rubles could vanish within the year, a scenario that would tighten margins for distributors and alter the accessibility of affordable wine options for a broad segment of consumers. This aligns with broader market signals about the affordability ladder in the Russian wine market and the potential reallocation of import volumes toward mid-range and value brands.
On the global stage, trade data released earlier underscored Russia’s evolving role in the international wine import network. A January report from RIA Novosti placed the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan at the top of the list of leading sparkling wine importers for January through August 2023, with Russia occupying ninth place. While this snapshot reflects a specific period, it forms part of a longer narrative about where Russian consumers source sparkling wine and how suppliers adjust to changing demand patterns and tariff policies.
Analysts have also been examining quantity and price trajectories for wine into 2024. The overarching picture shows a market recalibrating around value and reliability, with more diverse sourcing and a focus on cost-efficient logistics as global supply chains respond to tariffs and inflationary pressures. Although prices may rise in some segments, buyers appear to be shifting toward brands that offer a compelling blend of quality and value, rather than chasing the prestige labels that once dominated shelf space.
Taken together, these developments illustrate a shifting landscape for wine imports and domestic pricing dynamics in Russia. The trend points toward a broader diversification of import sources and an emphasis on value-oriented brands in the near term, complemented by structural policy changes that influence both consumer choice and the economics of distribution. Market participants are watching how tariff regimes, exchange rates, and shipping costs interact with consumer preferences to shape the available wine mix over the coming months. The anticipated outcome is a more varied import portfolio that blends traditional favorites with new world options, providing Russian consumers with a broader spectrum of wines at a range of price points. The ongoing adjustments reflect the interplay between global supply chains, local demand, and regulatory environments in the wine sector as Russia and its trading partners navigate a rapidly changing market landscape .