The grain agreement that governs Ukrainian exports by sea is set to expire on May 18, with potential for a 60-day extension being discussed among international negotiators. Reports from TASS, citing a source familiar with the talks, indicate momentum toward a temporary renewal rather than a long-term renewal. Many observers expect the extension to last another two months, while Russia would like to see a final, definitive arrangement come into force before any broader changes are considered.
A Turkish source close to the negotiations suggests Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could announce a renewal decision in line with prior practice after a discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The timing of that announcement is described as occurring today or tomorrow, depending on the political channel and phone conversation schedules. This outlook is framed as a gesture of continuity, signaling that both sides may prefer stability as talks proceed.
The same source notes that extending the grain corridor could be interpreted as a concession from Moscow, hoping that the concerns highlighted in the Istanbul memorandum of July 22, 2022, will be taken into account in future steps. The memorandum laid out a framework for safe passage of Ukrainian agricultural products through the Black Sea and aimed to balance export needs with security considerations.
On the eve of new discussions, ministry briefings indicated that representatives from Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and the United Nations would continue negotiations on the extension of the grain agreement in the near term. The objective remains to sustain a functioning route that supports global food security while managing regional risks and political sensitivities.
May 11 saw a declaration from Sergey Vershinin, the deputy minister of foreign affairs of the Russian Federation, asserting Moscow’s position against an indefinite extension or broad expansion of the mechanism. This stance underscores a preference for a time-bound renewal linked to measurable commitments and progress in the overall framework.
Earlier in May, four-way talks were conducted in Istanbul, focusing on how to maintain the Black Sea corridor’s operational integrity. These discussions sought to address practical questions about vessel inspections, safe navigation, and the treatment of corresponding commercial interests for exporters and importers alike.
Background notes: on July 22 of the previous year, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and the United Nations signed an agreement to create a corridor for exporting Ukrainian agricultural products through the Black Sea. At that time, the arrangement was extended through May 18, 2023, with ongoing concerns that some terms of the agreement had not been fully met by Moscow. The updates and ongoing talks reflect a careful balance between sustaining essential food shipments and addressing the broader political and security dimensions that influence the Black Sea region.