Despite the turmoil in the energy sector during 2022, Russia remains a key player in the global gas market. This perspective comes from Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, who spoke about the situation in a recent interview. He notes that Moscow has relinquished its place as the world’s top fuel exporter, with Russian gas share in Europe dropping from about one third to under ten percent.
Yushkov explains that Russia previously exported roughly 155 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe in 2021. That level has not returned, and he estimates that Russia will still supply roughly 30-40 billion cubic meters to Europe in the near term.
The analyst points out that Russia now channels gas to Europe through two main routes. One route passes through Ukraine, delivering gas to Central and Western Europe in aggregate. The other route runs via the Turkish Stream, supplying Serbia, North Macedonia, Greece, Romania, and Hungary.
In the early hours of January 6, a major energy executive from a leading European energy company stated that a gas shortage in the European market is expected to persist into 2023. This assessment underscores continuing tightness in supply and ongoing uncertainty about seasonality, price dynamics, and regional demand in Europe. The outlook published for North American readers highlights how shifts in European gas supply can influence global markets, energy policy discussions, and energy security planning across North America. This context is particularly relevant for Canada and the United States, where domestic gas production, LNG infrastructure, and inventory management interact with global price signals and supplier diversification strategies. Marked as a note of record, the assessment points to a broader pattern of supply constraints that can affect gas prices, contractual terms, and the timing of deliveries to European customers. The takeaway for North American stakeholders is to monitor continental energy balances, storage levels, and cross-border trading patterns, as these factors often translate into price volatility and strategic planning considerations for the upcoming seasons.